U.P. assembly bypolls a prestige battle for Yogi, Akhilesh

After the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Uttar Pradesh is set to witness another show of strength between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Samajwadi Party-Congress led INDIA bloc in the by-elections for nine assembly seats. The Election Commission of India announced the schedule on Tuesday. Polling in the nine assembly constituencies will be held on November 13. Votes will be counted on November 23.

The outcome of the U.P. bypolls, to be held along with the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections, is likely to have a big impact on state politics, particularly on the fortunes of chief minister Yogi Adityanath who is leading the BJP campaign. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav’s hold on the other backward classes (OBCs), particularly the non- Yadavs, will be on test.

The SP had made a dent in the BJP’s OBC support base in the Lok Sabha election, winning 37 of the 80 seats in the state. Its ally, the Congress, won six seats while the BJP’s tally in U.P. was reduced to 33 in 2024 from 62 in 2019.

Now, the NDA is working to regain lost ground, particularly the support of the OBCs.

The date for the bypoll in the high-profile Milkipur assembly seat in Ayodhya district has not been announced due to an election petition, chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar said. The Milkipur seat was vacated after sitting Samajwadi Party MLA Awadhesh Prasad won the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat in June.

Eight assembly seats — Karhal (Mainpuri), Katehri (Ambedkarnagar), Kundarki (Moradabad), Khair (Aligarh), Majhawan (Mirzapur), Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), Phulpur (Prayagraj) and Ghaziabad Sadar (Ghaziabad) — were vacated after the election of sitting MLAs to the Lok Sabha in the 2024 general election.

The Sisamau seat was vacated following the disqualification of sitting SP MLA Irfan Solanki, who has been sentenced by a court in a criminal case.

In the 2022 assembly election, the Samajwadi Party bagged five of these seats -- Karhal, Katehri, Kundarki, Milkipur and Sisamau. The BJP won the Khair, Phulpur and Ghaziabad Sadar seats. The NDA ally Rashtriya Lok Dal, who was then with the SP, won the Meerapur seat and the Nishad party bagged the Majhawan seat.

The BJP enjoyed a decade-long dominance in Uttar Pradesh’s electoral politics with a rainbow coalition of non-Yadav OBCs and non- Jatav Dalit communities. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, this coalition collapsed. The same caste configuration had paved the way for the BJP’s resounding victory in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha as well as 2017 and 2022 assembly elections in U.P. The BJP is working to rebuild the caste coalition now.

Chief minister Yogi Adityanath, deputy chief ministers Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak and U.P. BJP president Bhupendra Chaudhary have already addressed a series of public meetings in the nine assembly constituencies.

The state government organized “rozgar melas” to woo youngsters and announced launch of various schemes for farmers and women.

Mobilising its leaders and workers for the by-election, the BJP constituted groups of three ministers, allotting one constituency to each group. The ministers have been tasked with completing the groundwork for the election campaign.

In a high-level meeting held in Delhi under the chairmanship of the party’s national president JP Nadda on Sunday (October 13), the BJP decided to field candidates for eight assembly seats, leaving Meerapur for its ally RLD.

The allies’ seat-sharing aspirations have added to the NDA’s worries.

Nishad party chief and Uttar Pradesh fisheries minister Sanjay Nishad is said to be eyeing two seats, Majhawan and Katehari. In the 2022 assembly election, the Nishad party won the Majhawan seat and was the runner-up in Katehari.

On the other hand, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav plans to take on the NDA with his successful PDA formula that paved way for the INDIA bloc’s big win in the Lok Sabha election in UP. PDA stands for pichda (backwards), Dalits and alpsankhyaks (minorities).

The Samajwadi Party emerged as the largest party in Uttar Pradesh, winning 37 seats in the Lok Sabha election.

The SP has already named six candidates for the bypoll and its ally Congress is likely to be allotted two to three seats.

Relying on the influence of local party satraps, the SP has fielded family members of local leaders in five of these assembly seats.

Seeking to make the contest triangular, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati had announced her party will field candidates for nine seats in the by-election, a departure from the past when the party stayed away from bypolls.

The shift of Dalit votes to the INDIA bloc in the Lok Sabha election alarmed the BSP camp, which aims to regain its hold on its support base.

The by-election results will also set the pitch for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly election.

If the NDA retains the seats it won in 2022 and manages to breach the INDIA bloc strongholds, it will give the much-needed boost to the party cadre.

On the other hand, defeat will intensify rumbling in the BJP. The INDIA bloc’s victory will give momentum to its game plan to dislodge the BJP from power in the 2027 assembly election.