‘Shift of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav SC votes dented BJP’

LUCKNOW The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) attributed its unexpectedly poor performance in the Lok Sabha (LS) elections in Uttar Pradesh primarily to the defection of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav SC votes to the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance and the shift of the BSP’s core Jatav vote bank to the same alliance, apart from identifying other reasons.

The party also saw various internal and external forces waging a ‘pseudo war’ to harm the party that had been hegemonic in UP’s politics since 2014.

According to party insiders, UP BJP president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary briefed party national president JP Nadda and Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the causes of the party’s poor show during his one-on-one meetings in Delhi two days ago. The party collected feedback on the reasons for its poor show from all the 80 LS constituencies in UP.

Chaudhary is believed to have enumerated all the possible reasons to the top leaders in Delhi. “On top of the list is the shift of the non-OBC votes, including dominant Kurmis, and non-SC votes, including Pasis, to the SP-Congress and shift of the Mayawati’s loyal Jatav votes to the same parties,” a senior BJP leader disclosed.

The BJP believes that it had been getting at least 10% of the total votes of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav SCs since 2014. But in 2024, 5-6% of this vote bank migrated to the SP-Congress alliance.

“It was largely due to the Opposition’s propaganda that the BJP, if voted to power again, will change the Constitution and abrogate the provision of reservation for SC-STs and OBCs,” said the leader.

The party, however, underplayed anti-incumbency against candidates as being any major reason for the poor results. “Had it been so, winning margins should have been higher in Varanasi and Lucknow where popular leaders like PM Modi and defence minister Rajnath Singh were candidates, respectively. In fact, the dent was made in all the constituencies in varying degrees,” he added.

It was pointed out that the SP-Congress did not need to think of Muslims and Yadavs and the alliance totally focused on SC and non-Yadav OBC voters who were taken in by the false propaganda funded by some NGOs within and outside the country.

Chaudhary, according to insiders, also told the top leadership that resentment among party workers for their neglect by the bureaucracy, discontent among Rajputs (Thakurs), and repeated leaks of papers of various competitive examinations in the state, etc also cost the party dearly in the LS polls where the party’s vote share dipped by 8% vis-a-vis 2019 due to which it could win only 33 of the 80 seats against 62 seats in 2019 and 71 seats in 2014.

Changes in U.P. BJP likely after bypolls

Changes in the UP unit of the BJP are most likely to happen in October-November, after the upcoming assembly bypolls to 10 seats in the state. These are expected before a new national BJP chief is elected to replace JP Nadda in January next year, according to party insiders.

The party does not want to disturb its status quo till the bypolls, which are being seen crucial for the BJP to regain confidence for the 2027 assembly elections. The by-polls in UP are expected in September-October, they said.

“Changes in UP. if any, will be made by October-November, most probably after the bypolls, but before January 2025, when the election to replace JP Nadda is due to be held,” a senior BJP leader said.