Rival camps in Uttar Pradesh to aim at ‘additional seats’ in Rajya Sabha, Council polls

Intense lobbying has begun both in the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party as well as the main opposition Samajwadi Party for the upcoming vacancies to the 10 Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh as well as 13 legislative council seats.

While the tenure of 10 Rajya Sabha MPs from Uttar Pradesh is ending on April 2, the term of another 13 lawmakers from the state’s legislative council is expiring on May 5.

With the vacancies coming up just ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, due in April-May, both the parties, along with their allies, are expected to go all out to ensure they not only win seats that their present strength in the state’s assembly justifies, but also make attempts for an “additional seat”, thus opening up the prospect of cross-voting ahead of the 2024 LS polls.

The elections to the upper house of Parliament (Rajya Sabha) are based on proportional representation and single transferable vote, which ensures surplus vote of winners are transferred to the remaining candidates as per their second preference. UP sends 31 MPs to the Rajya Sabha.

“Though the election commission schedule for the Rajya Sabha polls is not there yet, usually elections are held about a month ahead of the end of the term. That may mean the RS polls could be held in March,” an official said.

By the same reasoning, the prospect of May vacancies in the legislative council being filled up a month before in April is not ruled out as well.

Closer to the elections, fence-sitters in several parties usually “cross over”. The fact that the Rajya Sabha - as well as possibly the legislative council polls - would be held ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would make them politically interesting, political experts agreed.

“The Rajya Sabha elections, which would precede the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, would definitely give a hint about the strategy of the BJP and its allies as well as the opposition. In the past, RS polls have been very interesting and so, politically, there would be much to look out for. As for legislative council polls, if held ahead of 2024 LS polls, they, too, would be watched out for any political significance,” said AP Tiwari, a political expert.

“I don’t know what would happen during April polls. What I do remember is that of the 10 Rajya Sabha candidates from Uttar Pradesh, whose term is ending in April is Anil Kumar Agarwal. He was the BJP’s ninth candidate in the 2018 Rajya Sabha polls despite the fact that the party then had votes only to get eight candidates elected. It was astute planning by the then BJP chief and present Union home minister Amit Shah that had resulted in Agarwal’s win,” a U.P. minister recalled when asked if the BJP, which appears to be in a position to win seven of the 10 RS vacancies from the state, would make a bid for an ‘additional’ seat.

The BJP and allies along with that of the state’s main opposition Samajwadi Party and its ally RLD have 397 lawmakers in the 403-member UP assembly.

These lawmakers vote in both Rajya Sabha as well as legislative council polls, thus making the other two mainstream parties – Congress (2 MLAs) and Bahujan Samaj Party (1 MLA), virtually inconsequential in these contests.

The BJP has 254 lawmakers while its allies Apna Dal (Sonelal) has 13 and Nishad Party and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party have 6 lawmakers each. The opposition Samajwadi Party (109) and its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (9) together have 118 lawmakers by its side.

Nearly 31 votes would be required by the parties to get any member elected in the legislative council while for the Rajya Sabha about 32 votes would be needed, officials said.

While the BJP clearly would be in a position to get the maximum candidates elected, the SP, along with RLD, would be the only party in a position to win all the remaining seats after the BJP.

Of the 13 vacancies in the legislative council in May, the SP, along with the RLD, could get up to four MLCs elected, which could take its strength to about 12 MLCs. “The development would automatically ensure that it gets the status of the leader of the opposition in the upper house for which a party must have at least 10 MLCs. The SP currently has 9 MLCs against the BJP’s 81 in the 100-member Upper House,” said officials of the Vidhan Parishad secretariat.

After May, the BSP’s lone representation in the legislative council in the form of Bhimrao Ambedkar, too, would end. The Congress already doesn’t have any representation in the Council.

MLCs WHOSE TERM IS ENDING IN MAY

They include 10 from BJP, 1 each from Apna Dal (S), SP, BSP.

Mahendra Kumar Singh

Vijay Bahadur Pathak

Mohsin Raza

Vidya Sagar Sonkar

Sarojini Agarwal

Yashwant Singh

Ashok Kataria

Ashok Dhawan

Bukkal Nawab

Nirmala Paswan

Ashish Patel - (Apna Dal-S)

Naresh Uttam (SP)

Bhim Rao Ambedkar (BSP)

10 RAJYA SABHA MPs WHOSE TERM IS ENDING IN APRIL:

They include 9 from BJP, 1 from SP

Ashok Bajpai

Anil Jain

Anil Agarwal

Kanta Kardam

Sakaldeep Rajbhar

GVL Narasimha Rao

Sudhanshu Trivedi

Harnath Singh Yadav

Vijay Pal Tomar

Jaya Bachchan - (SP)