Post assembly poll results: Buzz on U.P. cabinet expansion, seat-sharing likely to grow

Billed as the semifinal ahead of the all-important 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the assembly poll results for four of the five states to be declared on Sunday would have their own importance in Uttar Pradesh, where each of the leading political players would use the outcome for better posturing for the parliamentary polls, due in April-May.

Once the results come in, many expect the Yogi Adityanath government to undertake the much-expected expansion of the state cabinet, an exercise through which BJP would look to ramp up its caste connect.

“There has been much speculation on the government expansion and if it were to happen, the timing would be opportune to give out messages that the ruling party thinks appropriate ahead of Lok Sabha polls,” said political observer AP Tiwari.

Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, a key OBC ally of the BJP, has made no secret of its ambitions for a berth in the Yogi 2.0 government, which can accommodate eight more ministers at present.

The mood of the electorate in four of the five states – Congress-ruled Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and BRS-ruled Telangana would be revealed on Sunday, while the Mizo National Front-ruled Mizoram’s choice of new government would be known on Monday.

On the eve of the results, the BJP, which has thus been rather circumspect on the rather emotive issue of caste census – one that also found an echo in the poll campaigns of many of the five states – has slowly begun to indicate that it wasn’t averse to caste census per se. This is a clear indication that the BJP is looking to thwart the opposition pitch on caste census.

“Counting has its own importance in a democracy, be it vote count, population count or caste count. All of these strengthen democracy. In fact count is another name for democracy,” deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya posted, apparently to sidestep the opposition attempts to corner the BJP on the issue of caste census.

The opposition pitch on the subject is expected to get shriller if the BJP underperforms in the state polls.

Maurya’s post came shortly after BSP chief Mayawati, whose party contested elections in many of these states, urged the BJP to announce a caste census, an exercise that Bihar, ruled by Janata Dal (U), a leading player of the opposition bloc, has already completed.

Another OBC player Apna Dal (S) has also made its mind clear on the subject. Party leader and Union minister Anupriya Patel, a Lok Sabha MP from Mirzapur in east UP, reiterated her demand for caste census, a point on which Patel’s move is in sync with BJP’s two other OBC allies – Nishad party and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party.

By Sunday afternoon, the political picture would be far clearer than the rather hazy 2-2 projections made by exit polls for BJP and the Congress, the two leading political players, whose performance in these polls would also have a psychological bearing and possibly impact seat sharing agreements in key battle ground state of Uttar Pradesh, which elects nearly 15% (80) of the 543 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

“We will win these elections hands down. The Congress used to win earlier but now BJP and its allies have proved their worth and utility for the common people,” said U.P’s fisheries minister Sanjay Nishad, head of the Nishad Party, a BJP ally.

Both the BSP and the state’s main opposition Samajwadi Party, which contested the elections in BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh, are looking at these polls to better their presence in border areas.

For instance, the BSP insiders admit that having contested 178 seats in alliance with GGP, a local party that works for the rights of tribal Gonds and contested 52 seats in the 230 member MP assembly, the party was looking to strengthen its presence in Bundelkhand and the Gwalior-Chambal region, with a sizeable Dalit population on the Uttar Pradesh-Madhya Pradesh border.

Similarly, the Samajwadi Party was looking to open its office in Khajuraho, Madhya Pradesh, to strengthen the party in Bundelkhand and Vindhya regions that are located on the U.P-M.P. border, party leaders said

“There are many seats in Madhya Pradesh where the party can do well. These include seats on the Bundelkhand border regions like Satna, Tikamgarh, Khajuraho, Bhind and Morena,” an SP leader said.

However, such posturing, political experts concede, would have little impact if the Congress does well in the state polls, a development that would give it some heft in seat-sharing pacts with Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress has been out of power since 1989.

“Irrespective of the poll outcome, the effort has always been to guard against division of opposition vote and that process will continue. Perception wise, a good showing in all the states, which we are reasonably confident of, will help the process of consolidation of votes against the BJP,” said Shahnawaz Alam, the Congress’s UP minority cell chief.

Smaller parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal and Azad Samaj Party, both expected to be part of opposition bloc and which contested the Rajasthan polls, also await poll outcomes.