Lok Sabha polls: As SP-Congress forge alliance, Muslim factor to watch out for on 24 seats in Uttar Pradesh
Muslims account for 19% of Uttar Pradesh’s population and their voting behaviour is likely to define the outcome on around 24 Lok Sabha seats with a 20-50% Muslim population.
The Samajwadi Party-Congress seat-sharing deal for the Lok Sabha election may have raised expectations in the alliance that it will consolidate the Muslim vote and fortify the INDIA bloc’s position in at least 24 Muslim dominated constituencies out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.
Muslims account for 19% of Uttar Pradesh’s population and their voting behaviour is likely to define the outcome on around 24 Lok Sabha seats with a 20-50% Muslim population. That is why the Muslim factor played an important role in sewing up the alliance.
The leaders of both parties were aware that a division in Muslim votes will give the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) an advantage.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won Muslim-dominated seats, including Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, Moradabad, Bijnor and Nagina, that were once strongholds of the SP and the Congress.
In 2019, the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance 15 seats in Uttar Pradesh, a majority of them in Muslim-dominated west UP, including Bijnor, Amroha, Moradabad, Rampur and Sambhal.
This time, BSP chief Mayawati has decided to go solo.
The Congress and Samajwadi Party’s Muslim outreach was worked out during the Congress’s U.P. Jodo Yatra and the SP’s PDA Yatra. Both yatras passed through Muslim dominated districts of the west and Central UP.
The leaders of both parties connected with Muslim clerics and influential Muslim community members in the Rohilkhand region.
Along with Muslim votes, the SP- Congress alliance hopes to win the support of OBCs -- Kurmi, Shakya, Saini, Maurya and Kushwaha voters. The SP has released three lists of party candidates for the Lok Sabha election. Out of the 32 candidates announced by SP so far, 18 are OBCs.
“The PDA formula of the party will ensure its victory,” said SP leader Rajendra Chaudhary.
The SP-Congress alliance hopes to have the edge in the Etawah- Mainpuri belt, popularly known as Yadav land. Dominated by Yadavs and Muslims, the Lok Sabha seats in this region include Firozabad, Kannauj, Etawah, Mainpuri, Etah, Farrukhabad and Mathura.
In 2019, the SP won Mainpuri but Shivpal Yadav’s rebellion dented its chances elsewhere. With Shivpal and the Congress on his side now, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav hopes to regain lost ground in the region, perhaps the reason why he commented, “All’s well that ends well.”
Nevertheless, the alliance is worried that Mayawati may play spoilsport.
Her decision to go it alone may lead to a three-way contest and divide anti- BJP votes.
Though the BSP’s strength has declined in successive elections, it enjoys the Jatav community’s support. The BSP won 10 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election with the Dalit- Muslim formula.
Political observer Badri Narayan said the Congress- SP alliance will definitely get a large share of Muslim votes.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election will also witness a shift of the Muslim votes toward the BJP, he noted. The BSP that has decided to go solo in the Lok Sabha election will definitely make a dent into the Muslim vote base of the SP and Congress, he said.
Mayawati will field Muslim candidates on Muslim dominated seats and the Dalit- Muslim formula of the BSP will cut into SP- Congress vote base, he said.
In 2019, the BSP won Saharanpur, Amroha and Bijnor seats.
Prof Manoj Dixit , vice-chancellor of Maharaja Ganga Singh University, Bikaner, said, “The votes of the SP and Congress are not transferable. It was evident in the 2017 assembly election as the SP-Congress alliance failed to stop the BJP from capturing power.”
The SP will have to give a major chunk of ticket to OBCs, Dalits and Muslims, said Prof SK Dwivedi, former head of political science department in Lucknow University.
The Muslim-dominated Lok Sabha seats include Saharanpur (29.6% Muslim voters), Muzaffaranagar (27%), Bijnor (28%), Nagina (28%), Moradabad (28%), Rampur (42%), Sambhal (22%), Amroha (32%), Meerut (23%), Sitapur (24%), Kairana (23%), Bareilly (23%), Pilibhit (19%), Shahjahanpur (21%), Bahraich (23%), Shravasti (28%), Domariyaganj (26%) and Lucknow (23%).
The list also includes Kanpur (19%), Bulandshahar (19%), Baghpat (18.8%), Ghaziabad (16%), Aligarh (19%) and Azamgarh (16%).
