Trusted RSS volunteers were deployed to collect feedback on issues of governance and caste conflicts. The Dalit outreach programme came in the backdrop of Karni Sena’s attack on Samajwadi Party (SP) Dalit leader and Rajya Sabha member Ramji Lal Suman who made a controversial remark on Rajput ruler Rana Sanga.

Apparently, the Sangh Parivar’s volte face on caste census was triggered by the realisation that the over-exploited Hindu-card may not help in pulling back the lower castes into the party, crucial to winning majority in the Lok Sabha. Their desertion of the party in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have made the Modi government dependent on key allies. Thus, the party needed an aspirational issue and the caste census seems a good fit for their plan.

The government has tried to kill several birds with the same stone. For one, it has deflated the Opposition’s plan to counter the potent Hindu card with social justice. The move could strengthen the BJP’s social justice narrative in Bihar where chief minister Nitish Kumar was the first to get going with a caste survey, followed by the Congress-ruled Telangana.

In Uttar Pradesh, the SP, which has emerged as the third largest party in the Lok Sabha riding the PDA (Pichda or backwards, Dalit or scheduled castes and the Alpasankhyak or minorities) wave, had already intensified its activities on the ground for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. Now, BJP is attempting to dilute SP’s political trump card.

Caste division among Muslims

Muslims are influential in about 100 of the 545 Lok Sabha constituencies across a dozen-odd states. Sixty-five of these constituencies have over 35% Muslim population and they often vote en bloc as a religious group.

On the other hand, as caste divisions played a significant role in deciding the voting preference of Hindus, Modi and UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath had raised the slogans “batoge to katoge” and “ “ek rahoge to safe rahoge.”

Would the caste census now create a caste divide among Muslims? The government has already clarified the caste details of Muslims would also be recorded. Former Rajya Sabha member Mohd Adeeb, while welcoming Centre’s decision on caste census, said the subsequent quota would help the community as roughly 80% of the population were OBCs. The 27% quota for the backwards includes 6% for Muslims.

Political expert M Hasan said that Muslims, like Hindus, are divided on caste and sub-caste lines though in elections they have been voting as a religious bloc. He said the Mandal Commission had declared over 80 Muslim groups among a total of 400 castes as backwards. Though there was a demand to declare the entire Muslim community as backward, there was opposition from within the community between Ashraf (upper caste) and Ajilaf (lower castes) locking horns. The third caste Arzals are Dalits.

Notwithstanding the provocative utterances by a few leaders during the elections, the BJP had launched the Pasmanda outreach programme after Modi told the party workers to win them over by “sneh”( affection) at the 2022 party’s national convention in Hyderabad.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party did muster support of about 14% Muslim voters , which dipped in 2024 despite their campaign about no discrimination in the implementation of welfare schemes. However, the Modi government’s decision on Waqf has again angered the community across the country.

BJP Minority Morcha national president Jamal Siddiqui has said that Pasmanda Muslims are citizens of this country and would be enumerated as per their backwardness.

Meanwhile, the move has changed the political narrative in the southern states as almost all the political parties have welcomed the decision though the government made it clear that caste census will be aligned with the delimitation schedule. Some prominent southern parties were opposing the population-backed delimitation of the Lok Sabha constituencies as they fear their loss will be the North’s gain.

The caste census, which seems like a political masterstroke, may open a Pandora’s box with various castes demanding social justice amid limited opportunities. As of now, political parties are out to claim credit for the “historic decision” on caste census. But the Mandal 2.0 implementation may prove to be a more gigantic task than Mandal 1.0.