In NDA vs INDIA contest, four pockets of likely resistance in Uttar Pradesh’s saffron pollscape

The battle lines are drawn for the 2024 parliamentary election in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state with 80 Lok Sabha seats, where the BJP-led NDA is pitted against the SP-led INDIA bloc.

The state’s largely saffron dominated poll map has four pockets of likely resistance, which can be described as “Yadavland”, Congress bastions (past and present), the Azamgarh-Mau belt and the Moradabad-Sambhal region.

The BJP will defend 66 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and the Samajwadi Party three (Mainpuri, Moradabad, and Sambhal). As for the remaining seats, the BSP had won 10 and the Congress the solitary Rae Bareli seat five years ago. In 2019, the BJP had won 62 seats in U.P. and its ally Apna Dal (S) bagged two. The BJP later wrested Rampur and Azamgarh from the SP in bypolls, boosting its tally.

YADAV-LAND

Since the party’s inception in 1992, the SP held sway in the Mainpuri, Firozabad, Etawah and Kannauj belt, collectively known as Yadavland due to dominance of the Yadav family and the large Yadav electorate there. Now, an electorally strong BJP is in no mood to concede any of these to the SP.

The SP won the Firozabad seat from 1999 to 2014 but lost to the BJP by 28,000 votes amid the Yadav family’s political feud in 2019 as Shivpal Yadav, contesting as a Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia candidate against his nephew Akshay Yadav, cut into the SP votes. Now, Shivpal is back in the SP fold and has vowed to make the party candidate win.

In Mainpuri, the SP has again fielded Dimple Yadav, the sitting MP. The BJP has never won this seat.

In 2019, the SP lost its bastion Kannauj for the first time since 1998 as the BJP defeated the sitting MP by 12,000 votes. Now, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is likely to contest the seat. It was from Kannauj that Akhilesh entered electoral politics in 2000. The SP will contest all these seats with the Congress’s support.

CONGRESS TURF

Another fierce battle is lined up in Rae Bareli and Amethi. The BJP had wrested Amethi from Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in 2019 as Union minister Smriti Irani won the contest by 55,000 votes. While Irani has been renominated for the seat by the party, the Congress has not yet named its candidate.

Smriti Irani has been daring Rahul to come back to Amethi, a seat that the Congress leader won in 2004, 2009 and 2014. She has said the Congress will lose Rae Bareli as well this time. With Sonia Gandhi not in the fray, the Congress has not yet named its candidate for Rae Bareli that was won by former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi thrice.

AZAMGARH-GHAZIPUR SEGMENT

This eastern U.P. segment is not the pocket borough of any party. The SP, BJP and the BSP have had their influence here at various time. The SP has named Dharmendra Yadav for the Azamgarh seat, which party chief Akhilesh Yadav had won in 2019. When Akhilesh vacated the seat, the BJP wrested it by 5,000 votes in the 2022 bypoll. Before that, the BJP won this Muslim-Yadav dominated seat only once in 2009 when it fielded local muscleman Ramakant Yadav.

Mau is with the BSP, which won it in alliance with the SP in 2019. Now, the SP is zeroing in on the seat. Ghazipur, too, is with the BSP. This seat has been rotating among the SP, BSP and the BJP since 1996. The influence of jailed criminal-politician Mukhtar Ansari’s family is said to be prominent here. The SP has fielded Mukhtar’s brother Afzal Ansari (the sitting BSP MP) on the seat.

With a similar voter profile as Ghazipur, Ghosi is currently with the BSP. Both the BJP and the SP are eyeing the seat. Jaunpur is another seat held by the BSP. The SP is looking for the Muslim, Yadav, non-Yadav OBCs consolidation with the Congress’ help to reduce the BSP and BJP influence here.

MORADABAD-SAMBHAL BELT

This is belt is largely in western Uttar Pradesh, where the SP hopes to capitalise on the Congress’s support. The region has the Moradabad, Sambhal, Badaun, Rampur and Bareilly seats. The SP had won Moradabad, Sambhal, and Rampur in 2019. It lost Rampur to the BJP in the 2022 by-poll. The SP, with its former Rampur MP Azam Khan in jail, faces the challenge of winning it back. The constituency has nearly 50% Muslim voters.

Sambhal, represented by SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav twice and SP chief national general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav once, was won by the SP’s Shafiq-ur-Rehman Barq in 2019. Named as the SP candidate again, Barq passed away at the age of 93 last month. Akhilesh is looking for a suitable replacement for this seat which the BJP won only once.

Moradabad, too, currently held by SP’s ST Hasan, presents another challenge to the BJP, which has won it only once.

The BJP has been traditionally strong in Bareilly and the seat is currently held by the party’s Santosh Gangwar, who has won it eight times with only one exception in 2009. Now, the SP has fielded Praveen Aron as its candidate in Bareilly.