Ghosi result set to rekindle loyalists vs turncoats debate

The Ghosi bypoll result in Mau district of eastern Uttar Pradesh (UP) will lend impetus to the ‘loyalists vs turncoats’ debate within the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).

Though raging for a while, the debate gets overshadowed every time the party notches up a string of spectacular electoral successes, largely attributed to a charismatic leadership.

BJP candidate Dara Singh Chauhan and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief Om Prakash Rajbhar were the two principal characters whose performance was on test in this bypoll. Both are OBC leaders and known turncoats.

In a space of 14 months, they were hitting out at the same Samajwadi Party that they had praised in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls when the BJP was their target.

Both leaders were ministers in Yogi Adityanath’s first government. They are still contenders for a ministerial berth in Adityanath’s second consecutive term.

Some BJP leaders feel though a final decision on their becoming ministers is yet to be taken given the party’s OBC focus, and their appeal among their backward voters, both could still become ministers but with markedly reduced political heft.

Uttar Pradesh minister and BJP ally Nishad party chief Sanjay Nishad, who claims the support of the influential OBC riverine community, wasted no time in pinning the blame for the Ghosi defeat on Dara Singh Chauhan.

“National elections are fought on leadership and national issues, state elections on chief minister and state issues while bypolls are contested on the appeal of the local candidate,” Nishad said on Chauhan, who is considered closer to Rajbhar.

Despite the Ghosi defeat, the BJP still lacks a homegrown Rajbhar leader with the same political-connect among this community as Om Prakash Rajbhar. For all his political flip-flops, there are few east U.P. leaders who can match Dara Singh Chauhan’s appeal among his Nonia OBC voters.

That’s the reason perhaps why the two are expected to figure in the BJP’s scheme of things for the high stakes 2024 Lok Sabha polls, now just about six months away. The BJP is surveying each seat, leaders with the right caste matrix and the connect those local leaders have with their community for the parliamentary polls.

The thinking in the BJP is that the by-poll was a “good political workout” with some takeaways, that could now serve as a ‘wakeup call’ ahead of the big battle.

“The wide margin of the Ghosi loss was indeed a surprise. It’s like scoring very poorly in a test before the main exam and thus (one) gets time to prepare better. Such wake-up calls are always better than staying complacent till the end,” said a BJP leader.

“You would have noticed how despite losing key Lok Sabha bypolls in 2018 in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, the BJP emerged triumphant in 2019 Lok Sabha polls despite a formidable SP-BSP alliance. This time the BSP too is away and as for the others, most were there together in 2019 too,” this leader said.

As to the larger debate of ‘loyalists vs turncoats’, BJP leaders admit that while the party would continue to strategically open doors for leaders from opposition parties nearer the 2024 polls, the old guard would also factor in the party’s plan.

There are some leaders who argue that Ghosi loss may reduce the seat-sharing pull of Rajbhar, who had claimed that the Ghosi bypoll was a contest between the SP and the SBSP.

His son Arun Rajbhar, however, felt the media was unnecessarily hyping the loss and pinning the blame for the defeat mostly on Om Prakash Rajbhar.

The Ghosi result are also being viewed from another angle: while Rampur may have the highest number of Muslims, it is Ghosi that has a sizeable number of ‘Pasmanda (backward) Muslims’ - bunkars (weavers) - in particular. It is the same Pasmanda group to which UP minister Danish Azad Ansari, the lone Muslim face in the Yogi Adityanath government, belongs.

“Rampur may have the most Muslims, but Ghosi has a record number of Pasmanda Muslims, especially weavers and this election has its own symbolism,” said Congress spokesman JP Pandey.

Ansari had held a series of meetings among localities featuring ‘Pasmanda’ - a target group being aggressively wooed by the BJP since June 2022 when it made inroads in Muslim dominated Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha followed by its first win Rampur (sadar assembly) seat in December 2022 and win of its ally Apna Dal (S) in Suar assembly seat. The Ghosi bypoll was held with six other byelections across the country, including one in Tripura where the BJP’s Muslim candidate Tafajjal Hossain won.

“This is a win of the INDIA alliance of the opposition,” said a Congress leader who also pointed out how in Uttarakhand, where the Congress-SP fought separately, the Congress lost the Bageshwar bypoll.

A BJP leader said: “The way Shivpal Yadav helped SP chief Akhilesh Yadav by camping in the constituency till the end means that the SP has now finally put its house in order. This is something that will be factored in as we prepare our strategies.”

U.P. BJP chief Bhupendra Chaudhary while admitting that the SP win would be analysed, also wondered if the SP would now accept the victory or pin it on EVMs (electronic voting machines). This comment was a reference to the oft repeated charge of EVM tampering each time the BJP wins.