Failed in 2017, can SP-Cong bonhomie upset saffron surge in 2027?

As Congress leader Rahul Gandhi says his party will fight the 2027 U.P. assembly election under INDIA alliance, it remains to be seen if the ‘U.P. ke do ladke’ (refers to Rahul Gandhi and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav) will click this time unlike in 2017 when Akhilesh Yadav was facing anti-incumbency factor.

The SP chief has already hinted at going ahead with the INDIA alliance and reiterated it on several occasions. Both the parties are also buoyed by their performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh when they relegated the ruling party to second place as they jointly won maximum 43 seats (SP 37 and Congress 6).

On Tuesday, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said in Rae Bareli: “INDIA alliance will first win Bihar (later) this year and then UP in 2027”. The same day, SP president Akhilesh Yadav said in Lucknow: “INDIA alliance is strong and intact in UP”.

Rahul Gandhi’s statement has infused a fresh energy into the cadre of both the parties. In 2017, SP got 47 (one in every six seats they fought in coalition) assembly seats and Congress 7 (one in every 15 seats they fought).

In the 2019 LS polls when they fought without coalition, SP got just 5 seats and Congress one in Uttar Pradesh. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls gave a major boost to both the parties.

But will this alliance work wonders in 2027 UP polls? In 2019 general elections, when there was no alliance, the Congress had lost Amethi Lok Sabha seat to BJP’s Smriti Irani while in 2024 under INDIA alliance, Congress candidate KL Sharma won the seat defeating Irani.

In 2022 assembly election (without alliance), SP’s vote share was 32.06% and Congress’s 2.33% while in 2024 Lok Sabha (with alliance) Congress’s vote share went up to 9.46%.

In Amethi and Rae Bareli, Congress workers feel alliance will help ‘weed out the BJP.’ Congress’s Khiron block president Priyanka Rawat says, “Any alliance against the BJP will work wonders. Our party has already worked a lot at block level and if the national leadership wants alliance, it will get our full cooperation.”

Rawat, who oversees work in 60 gram sabhas and 128 booths in the party, claims, “The Congress has the best ground level network in country and state.”

Meanwhile, Akhilesh Mani, state secretary, Samajwadi Party Youth Brigade, who also met Rahul Gandhi in Rae Bareli, said: “Our leader (Akhilesh Yadav) is ready for alliance. We have got the message and this will change the entire politics in the coming elections.”

“I came for a formal meeting with Rahul Gandhi after the statement on the alliance,” Mani added. State leadership of the two parties too have the pros and cons in mind. “Coalition is also about strategic vote transfers. We have analysed the results from past elections. The 2027 coalition will be all about how we share seats and which candidate will help us win the seats we lost. Also, ticket distribution will be done keeping in view the impact of contest on the adjoining seats as contest on one seat can make adverse impact on adjoining seat too,” said SP spokesperson Udayveer Singh.

“UP Congress is currently strengthening its organisational network across 403 seats. Under an alliance, we will work under guidance from the national leadership. The aim is to wipe out the BJP,” said state Congress chief Ajai Rai.

The optimistic consequences of SP-Cong alliance were experienced in Varanasi too where PM Narendra Modi got 6,12,970 (54.24%) votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls against 4,60,457 (40.74%) of state Congress chief Ajai Rai who fought as an INDIA alliance candidate.

When Rai fought as a Congress candidate in 2019, he got 1,52,548 (14.38%) votes while SP candidate Shalini Yadav got 1,95,159 (18.40%) votes against BJP candidate and PM Narendra Modi who got 6,74,664 (63.62%) votes and won.

“Coalition strategy among SP and Congress has only one agenda – to form a non-BJP government and this is the message they will give out to voters to win over anti-incumbency votes along with their own,” opines Saroj Kumar Dhal, a senior faculty at Lucknow University’s sociology department.

Vijay Shankar Agnihotri, vice president, Rae Bareli Congress, said, “When two parties combine, they will make a better impact on voters’ psychology. In Rae Bareli, I can say alliance will win all five assembly seats in 2027.”

In the 2022 UP polls, SP’s vote share was 32.06% and it won 111 seats. Congress got 2.3% votes and bagged two seats. On the other hand, the BJP got 41.29% votes and got 255 seats.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, SP got 33.59% votes in UP and won 37 seats while Congress got 9.46% votes and bagged six seats, while the BJP secured 41.37% votes and won 33 seats.

In the 2022 assembly polls, Amethi seat went to the SP as its candidate Maharaji Prajapati got 88,217 votes while Congress’s Ashish Shukla polled 14,080 votes and BJP’s Sanjay Singh got 70,121 votes. The Tiloi seat is with the BJP. Here Mayankeshwar Sharan Singh, who got 99,472 votes, won while the SP got 71,643 votes and the Congress polled 21,978 votes.

The Jagdishpur seat is with the BJP while the Gauriganj seat is with the SP. Hence, in Amethi, out of the four assembly seats, SP has Amethi and Gauriganj while the Congress has none. In Rae Bareli district, Bachhrawan, Harchandpur, Sareni and Unchahar assembly seats are with the SP while the BJP has Rae Bareli.