BJP may need to review its strategy in east U.P.

The defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate in the Ghosi assembly bypoll has given rise to the question whether the party needs to have a relook at its strategy for east Uttar Pradesh and how much it can rely on allies in the region to transfer their votes before the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

After the 2019 Lok Sabha election and 2022 assembly polls, the BJP has been working to consolidate its hold on east UP. The party had swept the 2014 Lok Sabha election and 2017 assembly polls in the region. But in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it lost eight seats in east UP -- Azamgarh, Ambedkar Nagar, Ghazipur, Ghosi, Jaunpur, Lalganj, Rae Bareli and Shravasti. These were among the 16 seats it lost across Uttar Pradesh in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Though the BJP returned to power in the 2022 assembly election, it failed to open its account in some east UP districts, including Azamgarh, Mau, Ghazipur, Ambedkar Nagar and Jaunpur.

To turn east U.P. into an impregnable fort before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP tied up with Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamra Aam Dal (NISHAD) party led by Sanjay Nishad and fielded Dara Singh Chauhan, who defected from the Samajwadi Party (SP), to consolidate its hold over the Other Backward Class (OBC) voters.

The defeat of BJP candidate Dara Singh Chauhan by a margin of over 42,000 votes to SP candidate Sudhakar Singh has turned the focus on ability of alliance partners SBSP and NISHAD party to transfer their votes to the party as well as their hold over their caste. Other Backward Classes constitute 1.5 lakh out of the 4.4 lakh voters in Ghosi. They include 60,000 Rajbhars, 40,000 Chauhans and 40,000 Yadavs.

Uttar Pradesh BJP president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary said the party will review the reasons for its candidate’s defeat in the Ghosi bypoll.

“We will draw a fresh strategy to win the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The BJP will launch a series of drives in East UP to win the support of voters of all communities with the slogan sabka saath- sabka vikas,” he said.

A senior BJP leader said the party strategy to engineer defections from the SP with Dara Singh Chauhan switching sides and fielding him from the seat that he won in the 2022 assembly election backfired.

Some state unit leaders were said to be against the strategy.

Another BJP leader said the onus of the bypoll result was on alliance partners- SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar, NISHAD party chief Sanjay Nishad and Dara Singh Chauhan, who claimed support of the OBC and Dalit voters.

The BJP had won the Ghosi seat in 1996, 2002 and 2017 with party candidate Phagu Chauhan. Ghosi was never a stronghold of the saffron brigade, he said.

A political observer and Motilal Nehru Trust secretary Rajesh Singh said, “The bypoll was thrust on the people. It was also against the mandate of the 2022 assembly election. Dara Singh Chauhan had won on the SP ticket, now he was challenging the SP. The anger among the voters was obvious from the start of the campaign.” “The OBC and Dalit voters supported the upper caste candidate fielded by the SP whereas as the BJP’s OBC candidate lost,” he said.