BJP looks to broaden dent on SP strongholds: Nomination filing for third phase polls ends

With the support of the non-Yadav OBC, upper caste and non-Jatav Dalit voters, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks to expand its reach in the Samajwadi Party’s (SP’s) territory in the 10 Lok Sabha seats of Braj and Rohilkhand regions where polling will be held in the third phase on May 7.

Nomination filing in the 10 constituencies—Sambhal, Hathras (scheduled caste), Agra (SC), Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Budaun, Aonla and Bareilly—concluded on Friday.

The saffron party emerged victorious in eight of them, jolting the SP-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance in the 2019 elections. While the SP managed to wrest Sambhal and retain Mainpuri, the BSP failed to open its account in the region.

To regain lost ground, the SP has reworked its strategy and joined hands with the Congress this time. It has fielded its candidates on nine seats and allotted the Fatehpur Sikri seat to its ally. Meanwhile, the BJP hopes to consolidate its hold over OBC voters with the support of its alliance partner—the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

While OBC voters — Yadavs, Lodhs, Shakyas, Sainis, Kacchis, Baghels, Jats, Muraos and Kurmis — along with Dalits, play a key role in the Braj region, the Muslim vote is the deciding factor in Sambhal, Budaun and Aonla.

The BSP deciding to go solo is likely to make a dent in the BJP and SP support bases. It has fielded upper caste, Muslim and OBC candidates on various seats.

Meanwhile, the Yadav family’s prestige is at stake in Mainpuri, Budaun and Firozabad from where Dimple Yadav, Aditya Yadav and Akshay Yadav are in the fray. Dimple will go against tourism and culture minister Jaiveer Singh. From Agra, the BJP has fielded SP Singh Baghel.

SAMBHAL

A three-cornered fight is in store in the constituency. The Samajwadi Party has fielded Ziaur Rehman Barq, the party’s MLA from Kundarki, after the demise of sitting MP Shafiqur Rehman Barq. While the BJP has again shown confidence in Parameshvar Lal Saini, an OBC pick, despite his loss in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP has given its ticket to former SP MLA Shaulat Ali setting the pitch for three-cornered contest.

In 2019 when the ‘Modi wave’ swept the state, SP’s Shafiqur beat the BJP’s Parameshvar Lal by a margin of over two lakh votes.

In 2014, BJP’s Satya Pal Singh won the seat by defeating Barq by a meagre margin of over 5,000 votes. The BJP’s ‘lotus’ bloomed for the first time in the constituency that has 22% Muslim, 21% Yadav and 16% Dalit voters.

HATHRAS

The BJP has turned this reserved constituency into a saffron stronghold by winning it successively since 1991. In 2009, Rashtriya Lok Dal won the seat in alliance with the BJP. In 2019, the BJP’s Rajvir Singh Diler defeated the SP’s Ramji Lal Suman.

This time, the BJP has replaced Diler with Anoop Valmiki. Meanwhile, the SP has fielded Jasveer Valmiki and the BSP has decided to go with Hembabu Dhangar.

Here, Dailt 23%, upper caste (28%), Muslim (13%), Lodh (7%), Jat (14%) and Yadav (11%) votes will play a key role in sealing the candidates’ fate.

AGRA

Like in Hathras, the BJP has won this reserved constituency five times since 1991. The SP managed to wrest the seat in 1999 and 2004. Agra has 23% Dalit and 13% Muslim voters. Union minister SP Singh Baghel won the seat in 2019 by beating BSP’s. While the BJP has reposed its faith in Baghel again, the SP and BSP are going ahead with Suresh Chandra Kardam and Pooja Amrohi, respectively.

FATEHPUR SIKRI

The BJP won this seat in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2009, BSP candidate Seema Upadhyay won it by defeating Congress’ Raj Babbar. In 2014, BJP’s Chaudhary Babu Lal wrested the seat from Upadhyay. In 2019, BJP’s candidate Raj Kumar Chahar secured a huge victory over Raj Babbar--by over 5 lakh votes.

The BJP has fielded Chahar, who comes from the Jat community, again while the Congress has fielded Rajput candidate Ramnath Sikarwar and the BSP has given ticket to Brahmin candidate Ram Niwas Sharma.

FIROZABAD

A stronghold of the SP, this constituency is all seat to witness a three-cornered contest. The BJP replaced sitting MP Chandra Sen Jadon with Thakur Vishwadeep Singh. Jadon won the 2019 elections by defeating Akshay Yadav, the son of the SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav. A rebellion by Shivpal Yadav, who contested the seat on PSP(L) ticket, gave the BJP an opportunity to breach the SP fort.

Vishwadeep contested the 2014 Lok Sabha election on BSP ticket but lost the contest. Later he joined the BJP. To check the growing resentment against it among the Rajput community, the BJP has fielded Vishwadeep against the SP’s Akshay Yadav. The BSP announced to field Chaudhary Bashir on Friday.

MAINPURI

An impregnable fortress of the Samajwadi Party, SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and members of his family, Dharmendra Yadav, Tej Pratap Yadav and Dimple Yadav, have been winning the seat since 1996. Against Dimple, the BJP has fielded tourism and culture minister Jaiveer Singh. The BSP has fielded former MLA Shiv Prasad Yadav replacing Gulshan Dev Shakya. Shiv Prasad had secured victory from Bharthana assembly seat in Etawah district on BSP ticket in 2007. Later, he defected to the BJP and, in 2023, launched the Sarvajan Sukhay Party after resigning from the BJP.

ETAH

The BJP has bagged the seat six times since 1989. Etah was nurtured as a saffron bastion by former chief minister Kalyan Singh who won the seat as an independent in 2009 after rebelling from the BJP. Rajveer Singh, his son, won this seat in 2014 and 2019. The BJP has reposed its faith on Rajveer while the SP has fielded Devesh Shakya to make inroads into the non-Yadav OBC support base of the BJP. The BSP has fielded Muslim candidate Mohammad Irfan.

BUDAUN

The constituency is considered a stronghold of the Samajwadi Party, which won the seat six consecutive times since 1996. Another heir of the Yadav family, Aditya Yadav, the son of SP national general secretary Shivpal Yadav, is working to make his debut from Budaun. Meanwhile, the BJP has denied ticket to sitting party MP Sanghmitra Maury and replaced her with Durvijay Singh Shakya, who is the party’s president of the Braj region. In 2019, Sanghamitra, the daughter of Swami Prasad Maurya, defeated Dharmendra who was contesting as an SP-BSP alliance candidate to put Budaun in the BJP kitty after gap of 18 years. The BSP has fielded Muslim Khan from the seat this time.

AONLA

The BJP has won the seat thrice successively since 2009. This time, sitting MP Dharmendra Kashyap will go against the SP’s Neeraj Maurya and the BSP’s Abid Ali.

BAREILLY

The BJP has replaced its eight-time MP Santosh Gangwar, who won the seat multiple times since 1989. In 2009, Congress’ Praveen Aron defeated him. The BJP has fielded Chattrapal Gangwar while the SP has given ticket to former MP Praveen Singh Aron. The BSP has fielded former MLA Chotelal Gangwar.