Polarisation of Muslim votes likely to block BJP’s Bengal LS target

Kolkata: Seventeen months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) national executive meet in Delhi that his party should reach out to Muslims, especially those from the economically backward strata, the minority community may have emerged as a major hindrance to the saffron camp’s target of winning 30 of Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats in the seven-phase elections, feel stakeholders and experts. 

The primary reason, they say, is the communal overtones in the campaign speeches BJP leaders delivered in Bengal, especially after the first three phases covering the north Bengal region’s eight seats of which BJP won seven in 2019.

Although the BJP set a record in Bengal five years ago by winning 18 seats, its victory march in the south Bengal region was confined to regions with a high number of tribal voters or a sizeable population of Hindu Dalits many of whom came from Bangladesh as refugees. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which was enforced in March, was promised to this section by the BJP in 2019.

Ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) chairperson and chief minister Mamata Banerjee has projected CAA as a threat to both Hindus and Muslims saying it is a precursor to enforcement of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) which left 1.9 million Hindus in jeopardy in BJP-ruled Assam in 2018 and the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) on which Uttarakhand passed a law in February. 

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The second reason, cited as a catalyst in the polarisation process, is the Calcutta high court’s May 22 order which cancelled Other Backward Class (OBC) status awarded to 77 Muslim communities by the state government.

“This is clear from the chain of events that led to the classification of the 77 classes as OBCs and their inclusion to be treated as a vote bank,” the order, which came three days before the sixth phase of polling, said. 

Banerjee, while challenging the high court’s order, said: “I have respect for the judiciary but BJP got an order passed today and I won’t accept it. OBC reservations will continue.”

BJP leaders countered Banerjee saying she was attacking even the judiciary to protect her “vote bank.”

During the last decadal census held in 2011, Bengal’s Hindu population stood at 70.54 % while Muslims comprised 27.01%. This made Bengal’s Muslim population the second highest among all Indian states where the community is in the minority. Only Assam, with a Muslim population of 34.22%, was ahead of Bengal in 2011.

Bengal’s projected population in 2023 was 104.2 million and the Muslim population was projected to be around 30%. According to surveys done by all parties, Muslim voters play a decisive role in at least 120 of Bengal’s 294 assembly seats, of which BJP could win only 75 in 2021. On average, seven assembly segments comprise one Lok Sabha seat in the state.

In the 2021 assembly polls, the BJP fielded nine Muslim candidates but none could win. There was no Christian in the fray. The sole Buddhist candidate, Bishal Lama, won the Kalchini seat in north Bengal’s Alipurduar district. 

In north Bengal’s eight districts, where members of the scheduled caste (SC) and scheduled tribe (ST) communities have a sizeable presence, the BJP captured 30 of the 54 assembly seats. 

“Muslim votes would have consolidated against BJP in any case this year but these developments have ensured that the section of Muslims who might have voted for CPI(M) or Congress, something we saw in the 2023 panchayat polls, will back none but TMC,” said Professor Maidul Islam from the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences.

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“This chain of events may influence even secular and liberal Bengali Hindus. A section of these people might have toyed with the idea of voting for either the CPI(M) Communist Party of India (Marxist) or Congress. They may give it a second thought and ultimately back TMC. The BJP is likely to benefit in one way though. The conservative Hindu voters, especially those from the OBC category, are likely to back BJP,” Islam added. 

In 2019, the BJP wrested seven of eight seats in the north Bengal region which stretches from Malda to Darjeeling districts. These seats went to polls in the first three phases. According to the 2011 census, the Muslim population in Malda was 51.27%.

Since the BJP won the Malda North seat in 2019 because Muslim votes got divided between TMC and Congress, Banerjee did not honour the INDIA coalition in Bengal saying the Left and Congress were indirectly helping the BJP. 

Of the three Lok Sabha seats in Murshidabad district, which is part of south Bengal and has the highest Muslim population of 66.28%, two went to polls in the third phase. Of the 16 south Bengal seats that went to polls in Phase three, four and five, the BJP wrested seven in 2019.

BJP’s best performance in the south Bengal region in 2019 was in the districts that went to polls in the sixth phase. In Purulia and Bankura districts, for example, the Muslim population is less than 10% according to the 2011 census. In 2019, the saffron camp won five of the eight seats where elections were held on May 25.

Critics inside the BJP pointed out that there is no Muslim among the state committee office bearers and heads of the frontal organisations. In a reshuffle that took place months after the 2021 polls, Ali Hossain, the then minority morcha (front) president and the only Muslim face, was removed. 

“It would be a mistake to think that no Muslim has voted for the BJP in Bengal. Those with nationalist feelings have certainly backed our party,” Hossain said, citing the participation of Muslims in BJP processions in north Bengal’s Cooch Behar district where the minority community comprises 25% of the population. 

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“The communal overtones in the speeches of the BJP leaders after the third phase were not sudden. It was planned because elections in the regions where BJP did well in 2019 were already over. But these have not affected voters. Common people can see through the BJP’s thought process,” said Md Yahiya, chairman of the West Bengal Imams’ Association which represents clerics from around 26,000 of Bengal’s 40,000 mosques.

Political science professor Udayan Bandopadhyay said: “Muslim votes have consolidated in favour of TMC. They do not support the Left or Congress in this state. From what I have studied, Muslims have geared up to play the same role they played in 1977 when they opposed Congress because of the vasectomy drive that RSS also supported. For Muslims, this ongoing election is a war for survival.”

“It is impossible for the BJP to win the confidence of Bengal’s Muslims. They cannot ignore the threat posed by CAA and UCC,” said TMC spokesperson Santanu Sen. 

Bengal BJP’s chief spokesperson Samik Bhattacharya said, “No matter what the stakeholders and experts may say, we believe that TMC’s so-called monopoly over Muslim votes has ended. In fact, it has started collapsing in Kolkata and surrounding areas.”