Haryana assembly polls: BJP and Cong in eyeball-to-eyeball contest

Haryana looks set for a stirring head-to-head bout between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress for the October 1 state assembly elections.

If one takes into consideration the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls held three months ago, the BJP and the Congress look evenly poised having won five seats each. The two rivals were also neck and neck in terms of leads in the 90 assembly constituencies spread over the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Poll statistics show that while the BJP took leads in 44 assembly segments, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) which had Congress contesting nine seats and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) testing electoral waters in one seat led in 46 assembly segments across 10 Lok Sabha constituencies.

For the sake of clarity, the Congress took leads in 42 assembly segments across nine seats it contested and its ally, the AAP got lead in four assembly segments of Kurukshetra parliamentary constituency, the only seat it contested as a part of the seat sharing arrangement.

Political analysts say that BJP’s 10-year rule in Haryana would affect party’s prospects in the state assembly elections. About two lakh government posts are lying vacant and the unemployment of youth remains a major issue.

The Council of Ministers under chief minister Nayab Singh Saini recently approved an ordinance to provide job security to the contractual employees till they retire, a move aimed at guaranteeing job security for contractual employees. Saini in fact undid a number of decisions taken by his predecessor, ML Khattar like increasing the income limit for exclusion of Backward Classes from creamy layer, excluding the income from salaries or agricultural land for arriving at the gross annual income, increasing the financial limit for undertaking development by sarpanches without e-tendering etc. However, Saini’s efforts to stem the tide may be too little and too late.

Problem of plenty in the Congress

The Congress, which seemingly has an upper hand after the Lok Sabha results, has a problem of plenty. More than 2,500 Congress leaders and workers have applied for tickets for 90 assembly seats this time. The faction ridden grand old party which is striving for a comeback in the state will need some prudent handling during ticket distribution. “There are several constituencies where more than 50 applicants are seeking tickets for the assembly polls.The one who will get it will have a hard time pacifying others,” said a party leader not willing to be quoted.

Chautalas staring at obliteration?

A major implication of the 2024 Lok Sabha election was the decimation of Chautalas in the state and the consolidation of peasantry, including the Jats, behind the Congress. This also signalled the possibility of a bipolar assembly poll. Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which was a part of the four and half years of ruling alliance with the BJP till March this year, failed to get even 1% of the vote share, while its parent organisation, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) of former chief minister Om Prakash Chautala got a mere 1.74 % votes.

Expert quote

Prof Ashutosh Kumar, a political scientist at Panjab University, Chandigarh, says the October 2024 assembly poll promises to be a direct fight between the BJP and Congress and the JJP and INLD would be reduced to being fringe players.

“We will have a keenly contested poll at hand. The Jat factor will be at play in this election. Congress leader, Bhupinder Hooda because of his stature stands a better chance as compared to Nayab Saini in terms of acceptability among the electorate,’’ Prof Kumar says.

On bitter factionalism plaguing the prospects of Congress, Prof Kumar said that it is business as usual for the grand old party. “The Congress is used to factionalism. See, all the leaders, including the likes of Selja, would have to protect their turf to keep themselves relevant,’’ he says.