Haryana assembly elections: Inability to consolidate non-Jats, failure to pacify rebels did Congress in

Hoping to ride on Bharatiya Janata Party’s anti-incumbency in the state, the Congress which was looking to wrest power in Haryana suffered reverses as the results for the 2024 assembly polls poured in on October 8.

The Congress, which led in 42 assembly segments when it won five out 10 Lok Sabha seats during the 2024 general elections, failed to touch the 40-seat mark in the assembly polls.

Political experts said that Congress’ inability to get the non-dominant or non-Jat castes to rally around them, party’s overconfidence, factionalism, lack of organisational structure at the grassroots level and its failure to persuade rebels from contesting against the party candidates did them in.

Prof Ashutosh Kumar, who teaches political science at Panjab University, Chandigarh, said that it seems that public perception that Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a powerful Jat leader, will become the chief minister if the Congress returns to power in Haryana led to consolidation of non-Jat votes in BJP’s favour. “It worked both ways. The Jats, the majority community in the state, consolidated behind Hooda but the non-dominant communities by and large remained unresponsive towards the Congress,” said Prof Kumar.

Jat v/s non-Jats

Another political expert, who did not wish to be named, said that victories of BJP candidates in Jat heartland seats of Uchana Kalan, Gohana and Safidon assembly constituencies have proved that there was a consolidation of non-Jat communities in favour of the BJP.

“Three Brahmin candidates fielded by the BJP defeated Jat candidates in Jat-dominated assembly seats of Uchana Kalan, Gohana and Safidon. Clearly, the strategy of polarisation of non-Jat communities worked in BJP’s favour. It also showed that the Congress was not able to counter it,” said an expert.

Prof Ashutosh Kumar said that as was seen during the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, the Congress party probably became complacent and overconfident about its victory. “The anti-incumbency of the BJP clouded the thinking of the Congress,” he said.

‘Hooda’s domination alienated other party leaders’

Congress sources said that since former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and his son Deepender Hooda had a major say in ticket distribution and the way the poll campaign was run, this led to alienation of other party leaders.

“The Congress is not a party of Jats only. You need to have leaders from across the communities -Vaish, Brahmins, Punjabi-Khatris, scheduled castes, backward classes (Ahirs, Gujjars) standing hand-in-hand with Hooda. That was missing. It looked as if only the father-son duo was running the entire show and sent a twisted message,” said a senior party leader.

“Sirsa MP and Dalit leader Kumari Selja was apparently upset over Hooda’s domination in ticket distribution. She also stayed away from campaigning for a while before being persuaded by the high command,” said a former MLA, who did not wish to be named.

Former union minister Margaret Alva, who was the Congress general secretary in charge of Haryana from 2004 to 2009 when the Congress won the assembly elections twice, in a post on X said that winning required staying neutral and unifying the party - striking a balance between individual aspiration and the good of the party. “In this election, we failed to strike that balance. Large numbers of rebel candidates point to poor party management. The petty public squabbles, false bravado and a campaign that made many sections of Haryana society insecure all led to converting a sure win into a loss,” Alva wrote.

The former union minister also said that on a positive note, these results will not dissipate the anger in Haryana against the 10-year misrule of the BJP. “It will only amplify it. We need to channel that anger and win the 2025 Haryana panchayat and municipal elections and serve as a strong, united opposition,” she said.

For the last 10 years, the party did not appoint representatives at the district and block-level, thus leaving a void at the grassroots level.

The Congress was also overwhelmed with aspirants for the assembly elections as about 2,556 party leaders and workers formally applied for party tickets from 90 assembly seats. “The move to seek applications with a non-refundable fee of ₹20,000 was a sure shot recipe for dissidence. There were a number of assembly seats where more than 50 applicants were seeking party tickets. Many of those denied tickets either contested against the official candidates or worked against the party’s interest,” said a party functionary.

Renominating sitting MLAs did not work, dissidents spoilt party’s chances

The Congress, which won 37 seats this time, retained 13 seats which it won in 2019 despite fielding all its 28 sitting MLAs (at the time of ticket distribution). Renominating sitting MLAs did not work for the Congress.

Besides losing seats in Jat heartland of Sonepat (Gohana, Rai, Kharkhauda and Ganaur), Jind (Uchana Kalan, Safidon), Bhiwani (Tosham, Bawani Khera), Charkhi Dadri (Badhra and Dadri), the Congress was hit hard by party dissidents in at least 17 constituencies. For instance, in Tigaon seat, the Congress candidate finished third getting about 21,000 votes while rebel Lalit Nagar got about 56,000 votes to finish second. Similarly in Ambala Cantt constituency, Congress rebel, Chitra Sarwara got about 52,000 votes to finish second while the Congress candidate, Parvinder Pal got about 14,000 to finish third. The winning margin on this seat was 7,277 votes.

Ten seats were what made all the difference

The Election Commission results statistics showed that the Congress lost 10 assembly seats to the BJP by a margin of less than 5,000 votes, including three by a margin of less than 2,000 votes.

Party candidates who lost by a margin of less than 2,000 votes were Brijendra Singh from Uchana Kalan (32 votes), Manisha Sangwan from Dadri (1,957 votes), Amit Sihag from Dabwali (610 votes). The seats which the Congress lost by less than 5,000 votes are Virender Rathore, Gharaunda (4,531 votes), Udai Bhan, Hodal (2,595 votes), Rao Dan Singh, Mahendergarh (2,548 votes), Jai Bhagwan Antil, Rai (4,673 votes), Subhash Gangoli, Safidon (4,037 votes), Shamsher Singh Gogi, Assandh (2,306 votes) and Sarv Mitter Kamboj, Rania (4,191 votes).