Decoding the Punjab Lok Sabha verdict

The rulers in Delhi and Punjab had a rough day in Punjab on Tuesday. The 2024 Lok Sabha outcome is a new marker in the Punjab political landscape that has been remade in last decade. A first election with multi-cornered contests and without any alliances in the state’s post-Independence history, it has thrown up a set of surprises tinged with paradoxes: a remarkable rebound by the Congress, a stunning downturn in the ruling Aam Aadmi Party’s fortunes, an unprecedented failure of the BJP to open even an account, and victory of two independents wedded to radical ideology - one of them incarcerated in a distant Assam jail.

It may look like a confounding verdict but the key message is loud and clear: Punjab has overwhelmingly voted for a moderate, centrist politics while opening up a democratic window to mainstream the pro-Khalistan fringe. Other takeaways are:

A wake-up call for Mann

Asked in an election interview with HT last month whether the Lok Sabha poll results will be a referendum on his government’s two-year report card, chief minister Bhagwant Mann was quick on uptake.“No, no… it will only be a reality check on how we have performed and how we can improve it” he said with a dismissive flourish. By his own reckoning, Punjab voters have now handed out a harsh reality check: From a staggering 42% vote in the 2022 assembly polls in which it romped home on 92 of 117 segments – an unprecedented feat in Punjab’s electoral history, the party’s vote share slipped to 26% translating into only three Lok Sabha seats – shattering his much-touted ‘Mission-13’ – a euphemism for clean sweep.

Mann had kept three planks at the front and centre of his spirited campaign: a populist hand out of 300 units of free electricity to domestic consumers which meant no power bill for over 90% households, his scam-free governance and a shrill anti-centrism pegged to denial of ₹9,000 crore funds allegedly by New Delhi. But, all this didn’t cut much ice with voters in the backdrop of skyhigh expectations that AAP had raised in its catchphrase of ‘badlav’ before the assembly outing. Even the ‘victim card’, played up by the party over Arvind Kejriwal’s imprisonment in an alleged Delhi excise scam, failed to muster a sliver of sympathy. Rather it cast a shadow on the Mann’s anti-corruption trump card. AAP’s less-than-expected showing also underscores the vote-catching limitation of freebies culture. If 2022 was the crest of the AAP wave in Punjab, 2024 is its first trough. Clearly, it’s a wake-up call for Mann who now faces a revitalised opposition and the challenge of keeping his flock of MLAs together. His next challenge: byelection in five assembly segments.

Cong cashes in on AAP slump

An ultimate irony in Punjab’s verdict is that the Congress’ spectacular showing came on a day (June 4) marking the four decades of Operation Bluestar for which the party has been held blameworthy in the Sikh mind. Three factors came into play in the turnaround in the Congress fortunes two years after it had badly lost in the last assembly elections with a 16% drop in its vote share. Its deft strategy to not align with AAP in Punjab despite the two being part of INDIA bloc at national level paid off. It pivoted the party as the prime beneficiary of the anti-incumbency ire. Equally successful was its gambit of fielding the big names such as Charanjit Singh Channi, Sukhjinder Randhawa, Amarinder Singh Raja Warring. The Congress narrative – centered on a bevy of guarantees on farm debt waiver and legal framework for MSP on crops — apparently resonated both with rural and urban voters. Congress is now in a pole position of opposition space.

Akalis’ battle for survival turns tougher

As a century-old party, one of the country’s oldest, the battle of survival and relevance has only turned graver for Shiromani Akali Dal that faced its third consecutive election setback on Tuesday. Its rough patch began when it lost power in 2017. In the 2019 Lok Sabha contest, it held on to only two seats, won by president Sukhbir Badal and his wife Harsimrat Kaur. In this election, their first without alliance with BJP since 1996, their only consolation is a lone victory of Kaur in the family bastion of Bathinda. Clearly, Akalis are yet to redeem their lost traditional support base among rural peasantry and Sikhs. Worrying for Akalis is a 5% slide in their vote share from 18% in the 2022 assembly polls – the lowest ever in the party’s history. Sukhbir’s desperate rallying cry, portraying Akalis as the standard bearer of Punjab’s and Panth’s interests, remains a far cry. Yet another defeat on Sukhbir’s watch is sure to prompt his party detractors, waiting in the wings, to question his leadership. Expect a fresh round of turbulence in Akalis ranks. With the successful radical charge in two once- Akali strongholds, the party’s struggle to claw its way back on the Panthic terrain has only got tougher.

Modi juggernaut runs into Shambhu barrier

It was the BJP’s solo fight on all 13 seats – the first since 1996 without its old Akali ally. Its calculus was hinged as much on the Modi factor as tapping into the disenchantment with the Mann government. As part of a carefully-crafted Sikh outreach to expand itself beyond its traditional base among the urban Hindus, it grafted into its fold several Sikh faces, mostly the disgruntled Congress leaders, including Capt Amarinder Singh and Sunil Jakhar. Of 14 turncoats in fray, seven were BJP nominees. Yet, the party drew a blank. The saffron party’s worst ever showing in Punjab is attributable to perceived anti-minorityism, blowback of embers of farmers’ ferment and break-up of its alliance with Akalis. The Modi juggernaut, which in 2019 had lent wind to the party’s sails in Hindu-majority areas helping it win two seats, didn’t cross the Shambhu barrier this time. It’s last-ditch attempts at polarising the electorate on communal lines and consolidating the urban vote did succeed marginally as evident from a jump in its vote share to 18% from 6% in the 2022 assembly contest. But, a rural washout stymied the prospects of even its well-regarded Sikh candidates like Taranjit Singh Sandhu in Amritsar. The drubbing may force the party to rethink on its alliance dynamics to shed the tag of a political pariah in Punjab countryside.

Nothing alarming in radicals’ win

It is tempting to interpret the triumph of Amritpal Singh, a Khalistani advocate who is lodged in a distant Dibrugarh jail for over a year under the National Security Act, and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, son of an assassin of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, through an ideological prism and as a disquieting surge in support for radical ideology in the Sikh majority border state. But, surprises in Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot are in no way an endorsement for separatism. Their win, at best, is an aberration and welcome one, at that. For both have reposed trust in the ballot.

After all, Punjab has seen such flashes in the pan before. In the 1989 Lok Sabha polls, eight independents who swore by radical moorings had romped home on a tidal wave. Among them were Sarabjeet’s mother Bimal Kaur Khalsa and grandfather Sucha Singh, and Simranjit Singh Mann who was lodged in the Bhagalpur jail and won by more than five lakh votes from Tarn Taran which, after delimitation, became Khadoor Sahib segment that has put Amritpal on the victory pedestal. Less obvious but no less consequential is the defeat of Mann, an original and inveterate Khalistani protagonist from Sangrur, a seat he had won two years ago in bypoll.

To be sure, both Amritpal and Sarabjeet didn’t fight election on separatist agenda. The former’s campaigners portrayed him as an anti-drug crusader and Sikh evangelist, and pitched a vote for him as the key to his release. The victim narrative struck a chord in predominantly rural seat. The latter, contesting Faridkot which was the epicentre of the 2015 sacrilege case, tapped into a simmering Sikh outrage while subtly played the ‘martyr’s son’ card. Both benefitted from the weakening of moderate Akalis’ hold in rural constituency and Punjab’s deep-rooted penchant to side with ‘underdog’. Far from reviving the pro-Khalistani voices, the duo’s democratic debut may end up moderating and mainstreaming their image and ideology.

ramesh.vinayak@hindustantimes.com