BJP’s gamble on fresh faces paid off in Haryana assembly elections
BJP insiders say that at the core of this stunning victory in the Haryana assembly elections was the meticulously planned social engineering, and harsh decisions such as dropping 14 sitting MLAs, to beat anti-incumbency. The party had fielded 27 legislators and 15 of them have won.
Even as the anti-incumbency wave unseated Haryana’s eight ministers and the Assembly speaker of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has romped home for the historic third consecutive term by winning 48 seats, the BJP’s gamble on fresh faces paid off as 18 out of 31 first-time candidates secured victories.
BJP insiders say that at the core of this stunning victory was the meticulously planned social engineering, and harsh decisions such as dropping 14 sitting MLAs, to beat anti-incumbency.
The party had fielded 27 legislators and 15 of them have won.
Among the 90 candidates of the BJP, 51 were from the general category, 22 from Backward Classes (BC) and 17 Scheduled Castes. A total 31 candidates were contesting the assembly election for the first time, while the 51 general category nominees were Brahmin (11), Vaishya (five), Jat (16), Punjabi (11), Jat Sikh (one), Rajput (three), Rodd (two) and Bishnoi (two).
Later, in a tactical move, the BJP withdrew from the contest in Sirsa segment.
‘BJP govt’s clean image helped’
According to Ashutosh Kumar, professor of political science at Panjab University, Chandigarh, behind the BJP’s victory is the clean image of the state government. “Then chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar-led government did not face any serious charges of corruption. The government appointments were fair. Those recruited would vouch for it. One community dominance was also not there during two terms of the BJP,” said Prof Kumar, pointing out that the BJP should have flagged the achievements of the Khattar government more vigorously. In Karnal Lok Sabha seat, which Manohar Lal Khattar, now a Union minister, represents, the BJP won all nine segments.
BJP leaders said that of the total 48 seats the party won, five winning candidates are turncoats, 18 are first-timers, 15 are sitting MLAs while 10 winning candidates are former legislators or Members of Parliament. This includes sitting Rajya Sabha member Krishan Lal Panwar, who has won from Israna (SC reserve) segment. The BJP has won eight out of 17 reserved seats also.
A state BJP leader said that it was the result of this social engineering that 18 fresh faces succeeded in defying anti-incumbency. Four Brahmin candidates of the BJP also won from Jat-dominated assembly segments in Palwal, Jind and Sonepat districts apparently due to consolidation of non-Jat voters.
For instance, Gaurav Gautam, a Brahmin, defeated Karan Dalal of Congress in Palwal, while in Gohana segment, former Lok Sabha MP and BJP nominee Arvind Kumar Sharma defeated Congress’ Jagbir Singh Malik by 10,429 votes. Another BJP’s Brahmin nominee Ram Kumar Gautam (a turncoat) won in Safidon, a Jat-dominated seat.
BJP insiders say defeat of ministers like Abhe Singh Yadav (Nangal Chaudhary), Subhash Sudha (Thanesar), Jai Prakash Dalal (Loharu), Kamal Gupta (Hisar), Kanwar Pal (Jagadhri), Aseem Goel (Ambala City), Sanjay Singh (Nuh) and Speaker Gian Chand Gupta (Panchkula) has made the task of selecting the new Cabinet easier. Kamlesh Dhanda, Kalayat, who was a minister during Manohar Lal Khattar’s second innings also lost.
Party pulled up socks after Lok Sabha polls
BJP sources say the Lok Sabha verdict had set alarms bells ringing as the party was also grappling with factionalism and a disenchanted cadre. After the BJP won five of the 10 seats and secured a lead in 44 assembly segments in the Lok Sabha elections, the government woke up to ground realities and took corrective steps.
As per the election data, the ruling BJP’s vote share in assembly election touched 39.94% (55,48,800 votes), up from 36.49% in 2019 assembly elections. On the other hand, the Congress vote share stood at 39.09% with 54,30,602 votes polled in its favour. The BJP polled 1,18, 198 more votes in the October 5 assembly elections.
The BJP’s best performance was witnessed again in what is called GT road belt where the party won 16 seats out of total 26 segments (including three seats of Sonipat district). In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP had won 13 seats along the GT road belt. In Ahirwal belt (Gurgaon, Rewari and Mahendergarh), the BJP won 10 out of total 11 segments against eight in 2019.
The analysis of the election result data indicates that in 10 Jat-dominated districts (Kaithal, Rohtak, Jhajjar, Sopinapt, Charkhi Dadri, Bhiwani, Jind, Fatehabad, Hisar and Sirsa), BJP won 15 out of 41 seats, up from 14 seats in 2019.
Consolidation of non-Jat votes
Dr Satish Tyagi, a Rohtak-based political analyst, attributed BJP’s comeback to consolidation of non-Jat communities. “The Jats themselves were responsible for this polarisation. Congress stalwart Bhupinder Singh Hooda is seen as a leader of Jats, and other communities were apprehensive due to belligerence of the Jats,” said Dr Tyagi, pointing out that the Congress had sensed these fault lines.
“The Jat factor turned out to be a double-edged sword for the Congress. The non-Jats were very apprehensive with this dominance of the Jats and that is why non-Jat communities were silent.”
During the electioneering ahead of October 5 polling, the Jats had started celebrating Congress’ return to power much before the votes were cast, while the non-Jat voters remained mum about their next political move which became clear on Tuesday when the results began trickling in.