After Delhi debacle, future tense for AAP in Punjab

The rout of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the added ignominy of top leaders, national convener Arvind Kejriwal and former deputy CM Manish Sisodia losing their seats in the state assembly polls in Delhi is a double blow for the party in Punjab, the only other state where it is in power.

The dire election results had an instant demoralising effect on the party cadres and leaders as the ‘brand Kejriwal’, which helped the party make its presence felt in Punjab since its first electoral outing in 2014, has been diminished. The vote-getting abilities of chief minister Bhagwant Mann, who was among the star campaigners and held dozens of rallies and roadshows, outside of Punjab also got exposed. Though Mann drew impressive crowds, the AAP lost most of the dozen-odd seats having a sizable Punjabi population with big margins. The AAP had deployed its top state leaders, including ministers, MLAs and other leaders, to campaign in Delhi.

Setback for ‘Delhi model’?

The results also put a question mark on the electoral effectiveness of their ‘Delhi model’ that has been the fulcrum of governance of the Bhagwant Mann-led AAP rule over the past three years.

Ronki Ram, Shaheed Bhagat Singh Chair professor of Political Science at Panjab University, Chandigarh, said the Delhi poll debacle will have serious implications politically on the morale, functioning and support structure of the AAP in Punjab.

“Whenever anyone asked about their governance model, they pointed to ‘Delhi model’, which got punctured in the city where it was first showcased by them (AAP),” he said.

The AAP had stormed to power in Punjab in March 2022 with a historic mandate of 92 seats in the 117-strong assembly with the same guarantees of quality education, better healthcare and freebies such as ‘zero electricity bill’. The rival parties, Congress and SAD, did not lose any time in attacking them on their ’failed’ model.

“This result was totally unexpected. We were hoping to score a hat-trick of wins. The party high command will need to introspect why our ‘guarantees’ did not work and make amends here,” a two-time AAP MLA, who spent close to two weeks in Delhi, said on the condition of anonymity, making no effort to hide his dismay.

The AAP’s tally of three out of 13 seats in Punjab in last year’s parliamentary polls was also underwhelming, although it did win the subsequent assembly byelections and municipal polls.

Fallout on government working

The poll outcome has sparked intense speculation in political and official circles about its fallout on governance in the state, particularly the possibility of an increased role of the central leadership in decision-making in the state.

“The AAP’s next big electoral test will be in Punjab in early 2027. The party leadership needs to work, directly or indirectly, to set things in order. We have a maximum of 12 months to focus on good governance, which is what people want in Punjab, and return to our original aam aadmi (common man) agenda, instead of tooling around in choppers,” a senior party leader said on condition of anonymity.

In bureaucratic circles also, there is a growing feeling that the AAP national convener and other top leaders may attempt to micromanage affairs in Punjab, given the party’s increased electoral stakes in the state following Saturday’s results.

“Signs of this were already evident after the Lok Sabha elections as some members of the chief minister’s team were shown the door and Kejriwal started holding meetings with the state ministers and officers in Delhi,” one of them said.

However, party insiders and political observers are not ruling out the possibility of Mann, being the tallest leader of the AAP in Punjab, coming into his own and becoming more assertive to step out of the shadow of a weakened Kejriwal and erase a deep perception about the party high command calling the shots in the state.

Ashutosh Kumar, professor of political science at Panjab University, Chandigarh, said the new political dynamics in AAP are a breather for Mann, whose authority, it seemed, had been diluted in recent months.

“Any attempt by Kejriwal and other central leaders to call the shots or monitor affairs of the state government too closely may help improve governance, but it will boomerang on the party politically because people of Punjab do not respond well to such interference in their affairs. This is a chance for Mann to assert his position,” he said.

However, Jagrup Singh Sekhon, political analyst and former head of the political science department at Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, sees tough times ahead for the Mann government in the state due to severe financial crisis and governance challenges, besides increased internal dissensions between different power centres in the party.

“The CM will need to change his working style and be more proactive to take his ministers and MLAs along to deal with these challenges and deliver on promises on which they were given the mandate,” he added.