50% stubble still in fields, experts fear fire spike

Officials in Punjab said on Thursday that nearly half of the state’s paddy stubble remains unharvested in fields, signalling that the peak of farm fires — and the resulting impact on air quality — is yet to come. With farmers facing pressure to clear fields for the upcoming winter crop, experts warn that an increase in stubble fires is imminent.

In the two weeks since Diwali, which fell on October 31, stubble-burning incidents have doubled compared to the fortnight preceding the festival, indicating the mounting scale of emissions that are sweeping across north India.

The data from the state presents a stark figure for everyone downwind from the state in north India, and particularly Delhi which is currently relenting under its first spell of “severe” air.

According to official data, Punjab’s remote sensing centre has recorded 2,466 cases of stubble burning from September 15 to October 30.

In just the past 15 days, that number has more than doubled, with an additional 5,160 stubble fires reported.

As of Thursday, the season’s total has reached 7,626 incidents, with experts warning that this number will likely continue to climb.

The surge in farm fires raises concern for air quality in Delhi and other downwind regions, where pollution levels have consistently spiked during the stubble-burning season. The combination of these fires with stagnant winter air often creates a toxic mix, trapping pollutants close to the ground and causing severe respiratory issues for residents across the Indo-Gangetic Plain.

Till date, 16 million tonnes of paddy have arrived across mandis in Punjab, and experts said that another 250,000 tonnes are expected in the coming week.

Officials in the state’s food and civil supplies department predict that the paddy harvest will conclude within the next seven days.

“Nearly 90% of paddy crop (on the total cultivated land of 3.2 million hectares) has been harvested. In Barnala, Bathinda, Jalandhar, SAS Nagar and SBS Nagar districts, nearly 98% harvest is complete. In Kapurthala and Patiala, the harvest is almost over. Tarn Taran and Rupnagar are lagging as nearly one-third of the crop is yet to be harvested,” said an agriculture department official, who asked not to be identified.

The sudden rise in farm fires is driven by the approaching wheat sowing deadline, as farmers hurry to clear fields for rabi crops, experts said. The optimal wheat sowing period is between November 1 and 15; delays beyond this window could significantly impact crop yields.

“Farmers are worried as chaotic paddy procurement and shortage of key fertiliser di-ammonia phosphate have led to delay in wheat sowing,” said Bhartiya Kisan Union (Ughrahan) general secretary Sukhdev Singh Kokri Kalan.

This year’s delay in the harvest and the impending push to prepare fields underscores the annual tension between farming practices and regional air quality. The health impact of these fires extends far beyond Punjab’s fields, affecting millions across northern India.