BJP, JD(S) workers’ clash casts shadow on vote transfer between allies in Karnataka

Despite top leaderships of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (Secular) claiming that their alliance will have a positive impact, local workers of the two parties clashed during a joint coordination meeting in Tumakuru district’s Turuvekere on Monday, casting a shadow on the hopes for vote transfer between the allies.

The 28 constituencies in the state will go to polls in two phases on April 26 and May 7.

The confrontation unfolded during a coordination meeting convened in support of V Somanna, the BJP candidate endorsed by the alliance. Tempers flared when JD(S) MLA MT Krishnappa accused Kondajji Vishwanath, a former JD(S) leader now aligned with the BJP, of engineering his defeat in the 2018 assembly polls in Turuvekere by backing the BJP candidate.

Vishwanath, who was ruffled by the accusations, was on the brink of defending himself when Somanna intervened to diffuse the situation. However, this intervention led to a skirmish between the workers. The issue was later resolved, and the event proceeded without further interruption.

This incident highlights existing concerns within both parties regarding the effectiveness of vote transfer in the state. According to party leaders, a significant shift in votes from the JD(S) to the BJP could significantly impact electoral outcomes.

JD(S) state president HD Kumaraswamy said that his party’s role is to support the BJP in at least 18 seats.

“We have great strength in this constituency and even a 3% swing in votes could change the results in favour of the BJP, where it has a close contest,” he said.

For example, the JD(S) has garnered over 700,000 votes in Kolar and Chikkaballapur combined during the last two Lok Sabha elections. Similarly, in 2014, the JD(S) secured 214,000 votes in Shimoga.

Beyond these constituencies, the BJP heavily relies on the JD(S) to bolster its electoral base across several key Lok Sabha seats, including Chikkodi, Bidar, Bijapur, Raichur, Bellary, Chitradurga, Davangere, Tumkur, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore Central, and Bangalore North.

However, the success of this alliance hinges on effective voter transfer. In 2019 parliamentary polls, the transfer of votes between the Congress and the JD(S) proved unsuccessful, as coalition candidates predominantly retained support from their respective parties.

Analysis indicates that in 15 out of the state’s 28 constituencies, coalition candidates got significantly fewer votes compared to the combined tally received by both parties in 2014.

A pertinent example is evident in the 12 Lok Sabha constituencies of the Old Mysore region, historically dominated by the JD(S) and Congress. While the two parties commanded a commanding 60% vote share in the region during the 2014 elections, this figure plummeted to 44.25% in 2019, resulting in the loss of six out of the eight seats they previously held.

Meanwhile, BJP MP Tejasvi Surya expressed optimism about the BJP-JD(S) alliance, foreseeing a “positive impact” on the coming Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka.

“BJP-JDS coming together has given strength to both parties at the grassroots levels. I’m very confident that in all 28 Lok Sabha seats, this alliance will have a very positive impact. In many seats where our vote shares are very good, it will further increase,” Surya said.

He added: “Overall, this is going to do a lot of good for the state. Even in Bengaluru South, all JD(S) workers are happy.”