Hope of virus curve flattening in Haryana marred by winter surge threat

The incidence of coronavirus infection in Haryana has seen a decline in the last four weeks, stirring optimism and hopes of flattening of the virus curve.

Though the state reported 393 more new infections last week (Oct 19-25) as compared to the week before, the dip in the number of infections was more than 46% as compared to September 14-20, the week when Haryana reported an all-time high 17,616 viral infections.

Nodal officer for Covid-19 in Haryana, Dr Dhruva Chaudhary, says the decline in the number of cases was expected. “We had a peak period in August-September. There is a trend — infection starts, picks up, gallops and then comes down. A lot of people are also not going in for testing nowadays,’’ Dr Chaudhary said.

Asked whether the decline has something to do with the weakening of the strain of the virus, Dr Chaudhary said that they cannot comment on the virus strain as they do not have required data. “There was a significant community spread which took place. The positive cases reported were just the tip of the infection pyramid. There were a lot many asymptomatic patients than we know. There is a possibility that the virulence of the virus is reducing but we have no genomic data to ascertain this,’’ he said.

The Covid-19 nodal officer said a second wave of infection is expected in the winters. “I am apprehensive because educational institutions are opening up. Also, winters, increased pollution and festival season can contribute to a surge. We will know where we stand by the end of November and early December,’’ he said.

While the sampling using rapid antigen tests (RAT) and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for detecting new infections has also seen a decline in the past few weeks, health officials said that the variation is insignificant. Health officials though have maintained that the declining infection rate has outnumbered the reduced testing.

Additional chief secretary (ACS), health, Rajeev Arora, said the average per day tests were 11,238 in July, 17,339 in August, 26890 in September and 24,371 in October. “The sample positivity rate for October was about 4.9% as compared to 8.3% in September when per day testing was about 2,500 samples more than October,” he said.