Recessions in US last for an average of 17 months: What are they?
The Great Depression is the longest economic recession in modern history. The shortest recession was…
Recession are economic conditions that just about everyone dreads and are marked by negative economic growth that can last for several months or even years. They are natural parts of any economy's life cycle.
A period of recession consists of four phases:
- Expansion: Following an economic downturn, financial markets, consumer spending, and job growth start to pick up again.
- Maturity: As economic expansion begins to mature, wages, the job market, and consumer and business spending are strengthened. Additionally, business profit margins and financial markets see significant gains while inflation maintains a comfortable rate.
Also read: Steel maker ArcelorMittal seeks ₹1,500 crore to save South African mills: Report
- Aging: At this point, job growth, industrial production, and spending start to slow, resulting in declining profits, volatile financial markets, and accelerating inflation.
- Recession: During this period, unemployment grows and consumer spending falls, resulting in declining profits for businesses and shrinking economic growth.
In most cases, an economy is considered to be in recession where it has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative growth. An economy's growth is usually measured by its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Also read: How did a Zambian river 'die' overnight due to a Chinese company? | Full details
History of recessions in the US
In its history, the US has experienced dozens of recessions which lasted from anywhere between 65 to just two months. The average length of recessions in the US is 17 months, according to data available with the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The longest-ever recession in US history took place between October 1873 and March 1879 and lasted a staggering 65 months. In recent history, the longest and most severe recession was seen during the Great Depression of 1929, when a period of recession lasted for 43 months.
After The Great Depression, the average length of a recession in the US fell to 10.35 months. This average number was at 20.52 months between June 1857 and August 1929, when the Great Depression had begun. The most recent recession in the US, which was also the shortest period of recession, was seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020 and lasted for just two months.
Also read: 40 km in 11 minutes: Virgin Atlantic, Joby partner for air taxis in UK
| Starting month | Recession length |
|---|---|
| June 1857 | 18 |
| October 1860 | 8 |
| April 1865 | 32 |
| June 1869 | 18 |
| October 1873 | 65 |
| March 1882 | 38 |
| March 1887 | 13 |
| July 1890 | 10 |
| January 1893 | 17 |
| December 1895 | 18 |
| June 1899 | 18 |
| September 1902 | 23 |
| May 1907 | 13 |
| January 1910 | 24 |
| January 1913 | 23 |
| August 1918 | 7 |
| January 1920 | 18 |
| May 1923 | 14 |
| October 1926 | 13 |
| August 1929 | 43 |
| May 1937 | 13 |
| February 1945 | 8 |
| November 1948 | 11 |
| July 1953 | 10 |
| August 1957 | 8 |
| April 1960 | 10 |
| December 1969 | 11 |
| November 1973 | 16 |
| January 1980 | 6 |
| July 1981 | 16 |
| July 1990 | 8 |
| March 2001 | 8 |
| December 2007 | 18 |
| February 2020 | 2 |
Recession fears resurface
The fears of an impending recession have been in the news for years. However, the tariff policy undertaken by US President Donald Trump has reignited them.
The reciprocal tariffs that Trump has been announcing on a range of countries have triggered a spate of retaliatory tariffs on the US as well. This has triggered fears among market investors, which has caused large-scale selloffs globally. The trade war has also led to recession fears.
