Why Apple may be the winner as Androids battle

One man’s loss is another man’s gain. And the gain is much larger if you replace ‘man’ with ‘company’.

So you cannot blame a clutch of smartphone makers to be licking their lips at Samsung’s misfortune. As the South Korean giant decided to scrap the beleaguered Note7 globally, other makers of Android phones are counting their chickens. But can they rule out their farm being invaded by Apple’s iOS?

Let’s first look at the chickens on offer. At the last count, according to an executive of Samsung, the company had 15,000 pre-orders for the Note7 in India. Officially, the company has not been talking on the subject, but it is believed to be getting ready to make a sweet offer of the S7 Edge to those had had booked the S7. But will the customers bite?

“Samsung might be able to pacify a few customers with the promise of the S7 Edge, but most of them will move away,” said Vishal Tripathi, research director at Gartner.

Let’s assume that a large number of those eyeing the Note 7 will go to some other brand. So which will be that brand?

Android device makers will try and grab a piece of Note7’s market share, Tripathi said. They might succeed because loyalty to software is often considered stronger than loyalty to hardware. This can be seen in the way smartphone users move between the clutch of Android-based brands in the same price range.

But given that Samsung was in the highest price range among Android smartphones, its travails may benefit China’s HTC the most. It is the only company with products in that price range, and it has manufactured Google’s new Pixel smartphone. “We saw Huawei gain and change its image in India when it launched the Nexus 6P,” said Faisal Kawoosa, senior telecom analyst at Cyber-Media Research.

But not too many Pixel phones may be available before Diwali. Google has set a pre-order date of October 13 for India and has only imported 70 to 80 handsets so far.

Other Android firms are not seen to be in the same league as Samsung. Kawoosa said it won’t be easy for companies like LG, Huawei, OnePlus, or Xiaomi to encroach on Samsung’s turf. “It will take a solid marketing strategy, since there is not enough time left for them to come up with a new device just targeted to fill the Note 7 void,” said Kawoosa.

So ultimately, Apple may turn out to be the biggest gainer. “Nearly 90% of all Note7 sales might get converted into iPhone sales,” said Tarun Pathak, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research. It may help that the new iPhone, the seventh iteration, is filling shop shelves in India as you read this.