Mission Impossible Fallout vs Sanjay Dutt’s Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3: Who will win at box office?

Move over Bollywood clashes, now Hollywood biggies can give Hindi releases a run for their money in the traditional desi market too. This Friday will see Sanjay Dutt’s Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster going head-to-head with Tom Cruise’s Mission: Impossible-Fallout. Trade is giving both the films a fair chance and it is anybody’s guess how the weekend box office will turn out.

In the last few years, Hollywood has been giving a really tough competition to Bollywood. This tussle tilts more in favour of Hollywood if a big budget film releases with an average budget one.

Actually, the trend started in 2015 when Fast And Furious 7 scored a magnificent earning of more than Rs 172 crore, a mark very few Bollywood films touch. Then there were films like Jurassic World (152 cr), Avatar (145 cr), Avengers-Age of Ultron (Rs 111 cr), Spider Man 3 (108 cr) and 2012 (102 cr) that had crossed the coveted Rs 100 cr line quite easily. But the monstrous success of The Jungle Book in 2016 changed the equation between both the film industries forever. The film registered a tally of Rs 188 crore.

In next two years, it became a trend and now most of the Hollywood films that perform well in the overseas markets also do well in India. For example, Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2 and Black Panther made cinema hall owners happy in India. Avengers: Infinity War raked in more than Rs 250 crore in India. A film like Incredibles 2 that doesn’t have a vocal fan following in India has already earned more than Rs 40 crore.

Compare these numbers with films like Soorma, Veere Di Wedding and Dhadak, and you’ll realise how Hollywood is eating into Bollywood’s pie. They are not the secondary choices anymore.

Now, it’s Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3’s turn to battle it out with global superstar Tom Cruise’s Mission Impossible Fallout. Film trade analyst Atul Mohan acknowledges the stiff competition. He says, “MI is a known franchise that’s the advantage, but it wasn’t a show-stealer even the last time. The buzz around this one is definitely bigger though.”

Sanjay Dutt seems to be the biggest draw of director Tigmanhsu Dhulia’s Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3. Mohan says, “Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 1 and 2 have done decent business. Now with Sanjay Dutt in the cast, it has become slightly bigger as well. He has started picking up roles as per his age. He might not be the lead, but he increases the value of an ensemble cast.”

The initial screen count will also come into play. Mohan says, “MI is not coming in 3D, so it could be closer to 1500 screens. Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3, on the other hand, is likely to be released in closer to 2000 screens.”

The opening day numbers of both the films will set the tone of their fight over the weekend. If MI: Fallout shows more than 60% occupancy then it’s only going to get bigger from there onwards, and that wouldn’t be exactly a good news for traditional Bollywood filmmaking and marketing.