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Abhishek Jha

Articles by Abhishek Jha

Why western Maharashtra is crucial this poll season

The BJP and Shiv Sena won 232 of 288 assembly segments in the state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 185 in the 2014 assembly election, and 226 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

What eventually happens in the upcoming assembly election will depend a lot on the political outcome in 58 assembly constituencies (ACs) in the sub-region of Western Maharashtra.(PTI image)

elections

Updated on Oct 10, 2019 01:09 PM IST

Hindustan Times | ByAbhishek Jha

Patna flooded, but monsoon rainfall still below normal

An HT analysis of daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that total rainfall in Patna between 26 to 29 September was 210.8 mm.

A cycle rickshaw driver moves through waterlogged roads of Patna.(Parwaz Khan / Hindustan Times)

india news

Updated on Oct 01, 2019 06:43 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Local voting patterns show sharp contrast with central

A closer look at the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance in these bypolls underlines the larger trend which was seen in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Results of four assembly bypolls held in the states of Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh and Tripura were announced on Friday.(HT Photo)

india news

Published on Sep 28, 2019 03:16 AM IST

New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

How BJP challenged traditional caste arithmetic in Maharashtra, Haryana

When BJP won assembly elections in 2014, it chose chief ministers who did not come from dominant social groups in both Haryana and Maharashtra.

Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar showers flower petals on party workers during a felicitation event near Sector 10A, in Gurugram(Yogesh Kumar/Hindustan Times)

india news

Updated on Sep 22, 2019 12:17 PM IST

Chandigarh/Mumbai/New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

How fit is India’s population?

According to the National Family and Health Survey (NFHS), a person is considered to be thin or overweight or obese, if their BMI score is less than 18.5 or more than 25. BMI scores between these values are considered normal.

Among women, Mumbai has the highest share of the overweight or obese people, followed by Chennai, Delhi, and Bengaluru.(Photo by Aalok Soni/ Hindustan Times)

india news

Updated on Aug 29, 2019 10:58 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Heavy rain in hills poses flood threat to Delhi

Residents of low-lying areas along the river have been asked to move to safer locations as the water level is expected to reach the 207-metre mark by August 21, as per the Central Water Commission’s forecast.

The Yamuna river has been flowing above the danger level of 205.3 metres in Delhi since 19 August.(HT image)

cities

Updated on Aug 21, 2019 12:58 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

More rain in less time behind flooding: Data

In the two weeks ending 22 August, 2018, Kerala received 652.4 mm of rain, the highest in two weeks since 1 January 1989. It was this burst of rain, rather than a large increase in annual rainfall, which resulted in large-scale flooding in the state.

According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which has annual rainfall data from 1902, total rainfall in Kerala in 2018-19 was 3164.1 millimetres (mm).(PTI)

india news

Updated on Jun 14, 2020 09:28 PM IST

ByAbhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore

India’s changing monsoon trend: Fewer rainy days, but more rain

Rainfall patterns vary. That is why they are measured in terms of long-period averages rather than one year values. However, events such as the 2018 floods in Kerala have drawn attention to the trend of increasing skewness in rainfall patterns.

Scenes from worst-affected Kavalapara in Malappuram district of Kerala. A string of landslides decimated a human settlement here. At last 40 people are still buried under mud and debris.(HT Photo)

india news

Updated on Aug 14, 2019 06:12 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore

Gender gap narrows in migration for jobs

Across various education levels, men are more likely to migrate for work than women, according to the data, although there has been some improvement.

The gap between the number of men and women migrating for work has reduced between the 2001 and 2011 censuses.(Bloomberg file photo for representation)

india news

Updated on Jul 27, 2019 06:54 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

What the 2011 census data on migration tells us

Most women migrate due to marriage, and distance is a critical factor in determining the gender gap in migration for work and education.

The number of interstate migrants in Delhi and Mumbai (Mumbai and Mumbai suburban districts) in 2011 was 9.9 million, or one-third of the total population of 29.2 million in these cities.(HT Photo)

india news

Updated on Jul 26, 2019 04:55 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha and Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa

Analysis: BSP gained more than SP from their grand alliance

The only beneficiary of the SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh has been the BSP, which increased its seat tally from zero to 10 between 2014 and 2019.

The Samajwadi Party (SP)-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance in Uttar Pradesh was perceived to be a major threat to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the biggest game-changer of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.(ANI file Photo)

india news

Updated on Jun 05, 2019 08:18 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

More women may use Metro, but difficult to calculate fiscal burden

Since neither Delhi Metro, nor DTC or cluster buses have an accurate gender break-up of passengers, the fiscal cost of such a policy is difficult to ascertain.

The actual share of women travellers among all users of such services could be higher as women have a much lower share among workers than in the total population.(HT Photo)

cities

Updated on Jun 04, 2019 06:26 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Rise in win margins reflect BJP’s growing popularity

The BJP has increased its all-India vote share to 37%, an increase of six percentage points from 2014. Since it contested only 436 seats, it is unfair to compare BJP’s vote share with that of the Congress

Out of the 542 PCs polled in the 2019 elections, BJP’s seat share increases with a rise in victory margins.(ANI Photo)

india news

Updated on Jun 03, 2019 07:40 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

‘National’ status up for review for four parties

Being a national party entitles a party to a common and permanent symbol across states, and also space for a party office in the heart of Lutyens’ Delhi and free airtime on public broadcasters during elections

A 15 March, 2019, notification by the Election Commission of India (ECI) lists seven national parties in India. They are (in alphabetical order): AITC, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), BSP, CPI, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Indian National Congress (INC) and NCP.(File photo)

india news

Updated on May 29, 2019 10:49 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Poll results: Is rural India more ‘liberal’ than urban?

The increase in vote share of the candidates/parties who became liberal mascots in these four seats is inversely related with the share of urban population in these seats, suggests an HT analysis.

The rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the post-2014 phase has often been seen as a threat to liberal values by a section among both anti-BJP political parties and civil society.(PTI photo)

elections

Updated on May 26, 2019 07:57 AM IST

New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore

Once neck-and-neck, BJP now opens up big vote share lead on opposition alliance in UP

In 2014, the combined vote share of these three parties was 42.7%, compared to the 42.3% polled by the alliance of the BJP and Apna Dal . Out of the 73 seats won by the BJP-led alliance (71 by the BJP alone) in 2014, 38 were spoiler aided victories.

elections

Updated on May 24, 2019 08:36 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

NDA creates history with 50 per cent plus vote share in Bihar

Bihar saw one of the largest multi-party coalitions of opposition parties against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic alliance in this election. Past elections in the state justified this strategy.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers seen wearing Prime Minister Narendra Modi masks and ‘Chowkidaar’ T-shirts as National Democratic Alliance (NDA) takes lead in the Lok Sabha election results, in Amritsar, Punjab, India, on Thursday, May 23, 2019.(Sameer Sehgal/ Hindustan Times)

elections

Updated on May 24, 2019 10:11 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Do higher turnouts in MP and Rajasthan show Congress’s core voters are back?

Both states have recorded a significantly higher voter turnout than what they did in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

elections

Updated on May 08, 2019 02:21 PM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Key seats in heartland vote in power-packed phase 5 of Lok Sabha polls

The BJP won all 25 seats in Rajasthan in the 2014 elections. Given the Congress victory in the 2018 assembly elections, a repeat seems unlikely.

elections

Updated on May 09, 2020 05:39 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Why BJP faces a bigger SP-BSP challenge in remaining UP seats

This means that the share of NDA’s spoiler-aided victories in Uttar Pradesh was 18 percentage points higher in the PCs which are yet to go to polls in Uttar Pradesh compared to where polling has already happened.

IThe BJP’s 2014 victory in Uttar Pradesh was not just extraordinary in terms of its high seat share, but also victory margins.(AFP FIle)

india news

Updated on May 02, 2019 12:00 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019 polling Phase 4: Turncoat support base may have a bearing in Rajasthan

Lok Sabha elections 2019 polling Phase 4: In the 13 seats out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, which are scheduled for polling today, the Congress was actually behind the BJP in terms of vote share by 2.5 percentage points in the 2018 assembly elections.

Thirteen out of 25 seats in Rajasthan will go to polls today.(PTI File Photo)

elections

Updated on May 06, 2020 08:54 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019- ‘Elections have become very localised and transactional’: Praveen Chakravarty

We have something called the Nyay awareness index, which is measured daily. We can identify which pockets, which geographies will be the most likely Nyay beneficiaries.

Praveen Chakravarty, chairperson of the Congress’s data analytics department, believes that the fear of retribution is preventing anti-BJP voters in the Hindi belt from voicing their true opinion to pollsters.(Bloomberg)

india news

Updated on Apr 28, 2019 07:27 AM IST

New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: In Karnataka, coalition math key to Opposition strategy

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2014 elections. Karnataka is the only southern state where the BJP has consistently performed well.

elections

Updated on May 02, 2020 08:05 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: AIADMK faces test in election after Jayalalithaa era

The AIADMK created history by retaining power in Tamil Nadu by winning the assembly elections twice in a row, 2011 and 2016, ending a two-decade old trend. Tamil Nadu has flipped between the AIADMK and the DMK since 1989.

The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state.(REUTERS)

elections

Updated on Apr 18, 2019 01:28 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: World’s largest-ever election begins. Here is what’s at stake

55-7 to 7-32 between 2009 and 2014. The Congress also lost ground to other parties such as the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in Andhra Pradesh. Of the 91 seats,57 are in states where assembly elections have been held after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

elections

Updated on Apr 11, 2019 08:04 AM IST

New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha and Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Repeating 2014 UP show may prove to be tough for BJP

Unlike in the 2014 Lok Sabha and the 2017 assembly elections – both of which the BJP swept – the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) are in an alliance along with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a political party with a footprint in the western part of the state.

A simple addition of SP-BSP votes in 2014 reduces the NDA’s tally of 73 to 37 in Uttar Pradesh.(AFP)

elections

Updated on Apr 09, 2019 07:45 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Back in BJP coalition, stakes are highest for Nitish Kumar’s JD(U)

Another interesting statistic which stands out in Bihar is that the vote share of anti-NDA parties has always been close to the two-thirds mark in all elections since the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.

elections

Updated on Apr 06, 2019 08:20 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Poll history suggests Madhya Pradesh could be a close contest

The Congress increased its seats from 58 to 114 with an increase in vote share which was almost equal to the decline in the BJP’s vote share.

elections

Published on Apr 06, 2019 07:30 AM IST

New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Can BJP reverse 2018 election losses in Rajasthan?

While Congress did win the polls, its performance according to many commentators was lacklustre since it only got a 0.5 percentage point lead over BJP in terms of vote share and stopped one short of the halfway mark in the assembly.

Among the three Hindi belt states that went to the polls – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – the Congress was expected to have the best prospects in Rajasthan in the 2018 assembly elections.(PTI)

elections

Updated on Apr 04, 2019 11:33 AM IST

New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Oppn ahead on numbers but may find it tough to rout BJP in Karnataka

Adding vote shares of the Congress and JD(S) constituency-wise shows that a pre-poll alliance would not have made much difference in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. BJP would have lost two additional seats from its tally of 17 to the alliance, but still win a majority (15 of 28) of seats in the state.

statistics suggest that while the Congress-JD(S) alliance could increase its tally in Karnataka, it might not lead to a BJP rout in the state. There is also a long-term complication to the Congress-JD(S) alliance.

elections

Updated on Apr 03, 2019 11:08 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha

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Abhishek Jha

The BJP and Shiv Sena won 232 of 288 assembly segments in the state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 185 in the 2014 assembly election, and 226 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

An HT analysis of daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that total rainfall in Patna between 26 to 29 September was 210.8 mm.

A closer look at the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance in these bypolls underlines the larger trend which was seen in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

When BJP won assembly elections in 2014, it chose chief ministers who did not come from dominant social groups in both Haryana and Maharashtra.

According to the National Family and Health Survey (NFHS), a person is considered to be thin or overweight or obese, if their BMI score is less than 18.5 or more than 25. BMI scores between these values are considered normal.

Residents of low-lying areas along the river have been asked to move to safer locations as the water level is expected to reach the 207-metre mark by August 21, as per the Central Water Commission’s forecast.

In the two weeks ending 22 August, 2018, Kerala received 652.4 mm of rain, the highest in two weeks since 1 January 1989. It was this burst of rain, rather than a large increase in annual rainfall, which resulted in large-scale flooding in the state.

Rainfall patterns vary. That is why they are measured in terms of long-period averages rather than one year values. However, events such as the 2018 floods in Kerala have drawn attention to the trend of increasing skewness in rainfall patterns.

Across various education levels, men are more likely to migrate for work than women, according to the data, although there has been some improvement.

Most women migrate due to marriage, and distance is a critical factor in determining the gender gap in migration for work and education.

The only beneficiary of the SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh has been the BSP, which increased its seat tally from zero to 10 between 2014 and 2019.

Since neither Delhi Metro, nor DTC or cluster buses have an accurate gender break-up of passengers, the fiscal cost of such a policy is difficult to ascertain.

The BJP has increased its all-India vote share to 37%, an increase of six percentage points from 2014. Since it contested only 436 seats, it is unfair to compare BJP’s vote share with that of the Congress

Being a national party entitles a party to a common and permanent symbol across states, and also space for a party office in the heart of Lutyens’ Delhi and free airtime on public broadcasters during elections

The increase in vote share of the candidates/parties who became liberal mascots in these four seats is inversely related with the share of urban population in these seats, suggests an HT analysis.

In 2014, the combined vote share of these three parties was 42.7%, compared to the 42.3% polled by the alliance of the BJP and Apna Dal . Out of the 73 seats won by the BJP-led alliance (71 by the BJP alone) in 2014, 38 were spoiler aided victories.

Bihar saw one of the largest multi-party coalitions of opposition parties against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic alliance in this election. Past elections in the state justified this strategy.

Both states have recorded a significantly higher voter turnout than what they did in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP won all 25 seats in Rajasthan in the 2014 elections. Given the Congress victory in the 2018 assembly elections, a repeat seems unlikely.

This means that the share of NDA’s spoiler-aided victories in Uttar Pradesh was 18 percentage points higher in the PCs which are yet to go to polls in Uttar Pradesh compared to where polling has already happened.

Lok Sabha elections 2019 polling Phase 4: In the 13 seats out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, which are scheduled for polling today, the Congress was actually behind the BJP in terms of vote share by 2.5 percentage points in the 2018 assembly elections.

We have something called the Nyay awareness index, which is measured daily. We can identify which pockets, which geographies will be the most likely Nyay beneficiaries.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2014 elections. Karnataka is the only southern state where the BJP has consistently performed well.

The AIADMK created history by retaining power in Tamil Nadu by winning the assembly elections twice in a row, 2011 and 2016, ending a two-decade old trend. Tamil Nadu has flipped between the AIADMK and the DMK since 1989.

55-7 to 7-32 between 2009 and 2014. The Congress also lost ground to other parties such as the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in Andhra Pradesh. Of the 91 seats,57 are in states where assembly elections have been held after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Unlike in the 2014 Lok Sabha and the 2017 assembly elections – both of which the BJP swept – the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) are in an alliance along with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a political party with a footprint in the western part of the state.

Another interesting statistic which stands out in Bihar is that the vote share of anti-NDA parties has always been close to the two-thirds mark in all elections since the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.

The Congress increased its seats from 58 to 114 with an increase in vote share which was almost equal to the decline in the BJP’s vote share.

While Congress did win the polls, its performance according to many commentators was lacklustre since it only got a 0.5 percentage point lead over BJP in terms of vote share and stopped one short of the halfway mark in the assembly.

Adding vote shares of the Congress and JD(S) constituency-wise shows that a pre-poll alliance would not have made much difference in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. BJP would have lost two additional seats from its tally of 17 to the alliance, but still win a majority (15 of 28) of seats in the state.

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