The NDA consisted of chief minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, BJP and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), while the MVA comprised Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Sharad Pawar led NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar). The BJP-NDA mainly relied on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal and the performance of his government in the past ten years. Attempts to invoke Hindutva were concentrated in a few regions and not across the state. The splits in two regional parties — Shiv Sena and NCP — the Maratha reservation issue and distress among farmers were the issues propped up by the opposition in the election. In Mumbai, both Shiv Sena factions battled for relevance, with an underlying Marathi versus Gujarati narrative set by the Thackeray faction, accusing the Modi government of promoting business interests in Gujarat instead of Maharashtra.

With assembly elections in the state set for October-November this year, the outcome of Lok Sabha elections in the state would not only have an impact on the national-level fight between two coalitions but also on the state’s political landscape, which has seen political upheaval since the 2019 assembly elections.

Here are the possible scenarios from the Lok Sabha polls in the state:

NDA maintains its 2019 tally of 41 or comes close to the same

If Brand Modi helps the Mahayuti secure a minimum of 35 or more seats, it would mean the ruling alliance has maintained its hold on the state. This would be crucial due to the absence of any prevailing political wave in favour of a particular party in the current general election. Nationally, it could help the BJP maintain its majority mark. In the state, it would mean the ruling alliance is still favoured by the people and that it can retain power in the upcoming assembly elections. It would also mean that Eknath Shinde continues as the chief minister, with the exception of the Supreme Court’s pending verdict in the petition seeking his disqualification. Significantly, an NDA victory in Maharashtra would put a question mark on the political future of both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, even as Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar would claim the people’s validation of their decisions to engineers splits in their respective parties.

NDA and MVA win nearly the same number of seats

The second scenario would mean that the NDA takes a hit in Maharashtra but manages to hold onto some ground and the opposition MVA does well. In such a case, both coalitions could win around 24-25 seats. If NDA manages to secure 30 seats, it can still have an upper hand in terms of numbers. On the other hand, the opposition MVA would continue to be a force to reckon with even if they win around 20 seats. If they secure a few more seats, the assembly elections will see an intense political battle in the state with a far more aggressive MVA.

MVA scores 30-35

If MVA wins 30 or more seats, it would be a major setback for the Mahayuti alliance and would significantly affect the NDA's seat tally at the national level.

There could be major upheaval in the state with the opposition coalition seeing a clear chance to win the state assembly elections. It would also mean that Thackeray and Pawar would continue to influence state politics despite losing most of their MLAs. It will also be seen as people rejecting Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s factions. Such an outcome in the state may see a large chunk of Sena and NCP MLAs returning to the Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP).

"Despite the results going in favour of either party, a churn is expected in the state politics. NDA’s victory would mean Pawar and Thackeray losing more ground and will probably lose even the MLAs they have now. However, if the MVA does well, it will be the other way around," said Mumbai-based political analyst Padmabhushan Deshpande.

"For the MLAs, the coming assembly elections would be a battle of survival. Many of them will look at the trends in the Lok Sabha polls, how their parties have fared in their assembly segments and decide what to do next," he said. The MVA seems to have an edge over the NDA in the state. However, if the trend is reversed, there is also the possibility of Pawar merging his party with the Congress, he added.

Shailesh Gaikwad, political editor of HT Mumbai, breaks down the most important political news in Maharashtra this week