The latest counter-terror operation was announced after Sharif and his army chief, Asif Muneer after Beijing pointed out Islamabad’s inability to safeguard personnel and projects associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Arguably, the attacks seek to underscore the government and armed forces’ inability to eradicate persisting security threats despite Azm-I-Istekham being the 12th counter-terror operation to be launched since 2007.

Notably, soon after the August 25 attacks, Baloch Liberation Army’s Majeed Brigade as part of Operation Herof, according to reports, killed more than 100 soldiers and seized control of army camps along Balochistan’s major highways. Similar attacks can be expected to occur in the face of faltering safeguards and counter-responses by the state.

The marginal optimism, if at all, attached to Azm-I-Istekham’s success, has taken a resounding beating by the attacks.

Over the years, CPEC has fuelled widespread discontent due to the part it has played in socio-economically marginalising the ethnic Baloch community and as such been targeted frequently, at least thrice this year, by Baloch and Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) fighters. Despite being ideologically opposed, TTP and secular Baloch leaders have joined against their mutual foe — the state of Pakistan and the Communist Party of China — in a classic case of ‘salad bar’ extremism. One of the key features of salad bar extremism is that sometimes ideologically opposed groups or movements forge transactional ties to achieve common goals or objectives. In this case, it involves toppling primarily Pakistan’s federal government and compelling China to pull out its investments.

Understandably, while the attack on security forces can be understood as an attack on the state of Pakistan by extension, the systematic targeting of ordinary workers based on their ethnic identity of being a Punjabi (albeit not for the first time) and the series of attacks occurring close to the Punjab province has another important connotation.

Punjab is the seat of power in the country and ethnic Punjabis have dominated state institutions, including the political realm, military, and bureaucracy since Pakistan’s inception. This has occurred even as the Baloch community has been deprived of equitable access to resources and opportunities, and desired autonomy. For decades, Baloch people have also confronted mounting suppression, human rights violations, extra-judicial killings, and enforced disappearances. Therefore, the ethno-sectarian factor must also be considered while examining the attacks carried out by the Baloch insurgents.

At the same time, the recent events cannot be looked at in isolation from the broader economic and security situation keeping Pakistan in a state of continued turmoil and which has stretched its resources thin over time. The targeted attacks have taken place at a moment when the country is experiencing increasing threats from TTP and Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISIS’ deadliest affiliate) and is at odds with its former ally, the Afghan Taliban.

The jubilance seen in Pakistan after the Afghan Taliban captured Kabul in August 2021 has dissipated as cross-border air strikes have been carried out in Afghanistan in a bid to target TTP hideouts and camps.

On numerous occasions, Pakistani officials have lambasted the de facto leaders of Afghanistan for harbouring TTP members and violating their assurance of disallowing their territory to be used as a launchpad to carry out terrorist attacks elsewhere. At the same time, despite the announcement of Azm-I-Istekham, it would not be far-fetched to display scepticism about the viability of carrying out a prolonged and multi-pronged counter-terror strategy while it remains dependent on bailouts by the International Monetary Fund to navigate the turbulent waters.

These trends indicate a worrying trend for Pakistan as it is expected that Chinese pressure to address concerns related to extremism and terrorism will intensify due to the deteriorating security situation in the country. However, at the moment, it seems unlikely that China will pull out its investments considering that CPEC is a critical lynchpin of China’s global infrastructure-focused Belt and Road Initiative.

Finally, despite the misguided belief, brute force to address security concerns will only aggravate the security threats faced by the state.

Saman Ayesha Kidwai is a Research Analyst in the Counter-Terrorism Centre at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views expressed are personal and do not reflect those of the institute or the Government of India.