From the state home minister G Parameshwara dismissing the case calling it a “love affair gone sour”, to the chief minister Siddaramaiah denying the incident to be a case of love jihad, the Congress top brass had to retract its statements after they led to protests in many regions. After their comments backfired, G Parameshwara retracted his statements saying, “If my statements hurt Neha’s parents, I regret issuing them.”

“Unfortunately for the Congress, the incident has hit home on the point the BJP was making about love jihad. This could have a bearing on the Hindu votes that went to the Congress in the assembly election last year because of their guarantees,” said Pentapati Pulla Rao, economist and political commentator.

During its campaigns in the central and southern regions that went to polls in the second phase on April 26, the BJP political machinery raked up the issue in almost every rally, targeting the Congress’ approach while dealing with the case. From holding state-wide protests organised by the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad to senior BJP leaders issuing statements, the saffron party has been quick to draw political mileage.

Criticising the BJP’s response to the issue, former chief minister Jagadish Shettar said, “This is nothing but appeasement politics. Siddaramaiah visited the Hiremath residence because there was much pressure on him.”

However, K Annamalai, who was campaigning for BJP’s South Bangalore candidate Tejaswi Surya said, “Law and order have always been in bad condition during Congress’ rule because they do appeasement politics. What happened in Hubbali is not only distressing but extremely worrying.”

Congress on the backfoot

The Hiremath incident has brought to the fore the Congress’ ineptitude in handling such cases, political analysts say. From the party’s inability to respond to the Prime Minister’s allegation of stripping the backward classes of their reservation, while allocating reservation to Muslims, to the state government’s initial response to the bomb blast at Bengaluru’s Rameshwaram Cafe calling it a “cylinder blast”, the state Congress government and the INDIA bloc have been seen only offering belated responses, political analyst K Surendra underlines. The Nagarathpet episode where a shopkeeper was thrashed by Muslim youth for playing the Hanuman Chalisa aloud is another issue that the BJP has raised.

However, Congress spokesperson Sridhar Ramaswamy responded sharply to this criticism. “I’m not denying that these issues could have been handled better. But this is the BJP’s way of covering up the massive infighting in its party in Karnataka and its inability to show what it has done in the last 10 years. Instead, the BJP is using its old tricks to polarise voters,” he said.

Political commentators say that the polarisation is intentional to corner a larger percentage of the Hindu votes that went to the Congress in last year’s election. “While the initial wave was with the Congress, the Hiremath case was the last nail in the coffin. In my view, there could be a consolidation of the Hindu votes among the Kurubas and Dalits voting for the BJP with the Muslims continuing to vote for the Congress,” said JVC Sreeram, CEO of Winning Election, an election strategy firm.

Pulla Rao also points out that former Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s comments on wealth redistribution have not sat well with voters in Karnataka, where five sitting ministers’ children have been given tickets to contest this election by the Congress. The contentious issue of Bengaluru’s increasing Bangladeshi population, after the police combed many Bengaluru slums searching for illegal Bangladeshi migrants, was also brought up when the PM referred to the Congress’ alleged ploy of distributing wealth to “ghuspethiye” or illegal migrants.

The North Karnataka effect

While there is a wide consensus among political analysts about the consolidation of votes, they say that the impact could be seen more widely in the 14 seats that are going to polls in the third phase on May 7. According to the 2011 Census, North Karnataka has a 13% Muslim population with Christians accounting for 1.9%. Gulbarga, Bijapur, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, and Bellary are categorised under the “Hyderabad- Karnataka” region because they were ruled by the erstwhile Nizam of Hyderabad and are expected to see a vertical split of votes between the BJP and the Congress, leaders of both parties reckon.

But JVC Sreeram cautions the BJP’s optimism saying that a minimum five percent vote transfer needs to take place for it to reflect in an upward movement of seats.

“The fact that Neha Hiremath belonged to the Lingayat community doesn’t help the Congress. However, we must not forget that the Congress has fielded some of its popular leaders in these constituencies, including Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani in Gulbarga, so there is a good fighting chance given their performance in last year’s assembly election,” he added.

Deepika Amirapu is a freelance journalist based in Hyderabad. Each week, Southern Lights examines the big story from one of the five states of South India.