On May 1, at a rally in Hubbali, Union home minister Amit Shah said that the BJP cannot remain with those who “commit atrocities against women”, making it the first public display of the saffron party distancing itself from the JDS. The ruling Congress government in turn has constituted a special investigation team (SIT) at the behest of the Karnataka State Commission for Women chairperson Lakshmi Chowdhary to investigate the cache of explicit files allegedly involving Revanna. More than 2,000 videos allegedly showing Revanna have gone viral on social media since April 28, when the clips were leaked to the media.

“With Prajwal being the grandson of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, the JD(S) is left with no room for negotiation. His uncle and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy’s statements calling this incident a crisis involving Prajwal’s reputation reveals the broader anxiety of the party over the long shadow the scandal might have on the party and its supporters,” said Kishore K Swamy, an electoral strategist.

This is troubling news for the Vokkaligas, which account for 15% of Karnataka’s population according to the 2011 Ccensus. The Gowda community belong to the landed gentry and warrior caste who predominantly inhabit southern Karnataka or the Mysuru Karnataka region and have been constituents of the Deve Gowda-founded JD(S) since 1999. The JD(S) has considerable influence over the community and, therefore, is believed to have sway over the first 14 seats that went to polls on April 26.

Impact on JD(S) and its politics

The impact of a party member from the JD(S)’ first family being involved in a scandal of this scale is seen to be wide and deep. When HD Kumaraswamy called for “merciless action” a day after the videos came to light and refused to defend his nephew, it exposed the rift amongst the family members.

A similar tussle between HD Revanna, Prajwal’s father, and HD Kumaraswamy broke out on the issue of ticket distribution last year during the assembly elections. Revanna’s wife Bhavani Revanna wanted to contest from Hassan, whereas Kumaraswamy wanted Hassan MLA HP Swaroop to contest on the back of the party workers’ demand. For weeks, the matter remained unresolved because Bhavani refused to back down even after 91-year-old Deve Gowda offered to nominate her as a member of the legislative council (MLC). Although the ticket was given to HS Swaroop, Bhavani had announced herself as the Hassan candidate until a stern warning was sent out by the senior Gowda. Brokering peace between two of his children fighting for political supremacy, Deve Gowda allowed his elder son Revanna to take control over Hassan and let Kumaraswamy have a say over the neighbouring Ramnagara district. Kumaraswamy’s wife Anitha too contested from Ramnagara in 2018 and subsequently vacated it for her son Nikhil in the 2023 assembly elections.

“The fissures are deep and though Deve Gowda’s sons have nursed ambition, they do not possess the political acuity that the old war horse has always had since 1996 when he perched himself on the PM’s seat,” said Kishore Swamy. In fact, party workers say that the two brothers and their wives have rarely been known to display any cordiality because the fight for political supremacy has continued even to the third generation. Prajwal and Nikhil have fought hard for their Lok Sabha seat in Hassan and Mandya, despite the public perception of JD (S) being an “Appa - Makkala party”, or a father-son party.

Given this backdrop, retired IAS officer Balachandran who closely tracks Karnataka politics said, “The JD(S) is after all a one-community, one-state party. They have never contested outside the state or attempted to woo any other community in Karnataka. This puts them at great risk because the Congress has tall Vokkaliga leaders such as former CM and Union minister SM Krishna and current Karnataka Pradesh Congress chief DK Shivakumar.” It was amply clear when the results of the assembly election were announced in May last year that the Congress ate into the JD(S) vote bank and snatched more than a fair share of Vokkaliga votes. The Mysuru Karnataka region that usually supports the JD(S) chose to truck with the Congress in last year’s assembly election. As a result, the JD(S) reported its lowest vote share of 14% in 19 years. The party's best performance was recorded in 2004 when it enjoyed a 20.8% vote share winning 58 seats. Election after election since 2004, the JDS’ vote share has been waning.

It is because of these falling numbers and Kumaraswamy’s announcement that 2028 would be his last assembly election, that the party’s political prospects are in jeopardy, noted Balachandran and Swamy. Both analysts say that Prajwal’s departure to Germany after the videos went viral has dented his image among the public. The JD(S)’ reputation as a turncoat for constantly changing loyalties since its founding in 1999 has eroded public trust, the analysts say.

JD(S)’ loss is the national parties’ gain

The Congress and the BJP have been watching this development closely. Karnataka had a stable government until 1977 when Devaraj Urs was its chief minister. The Congress has been present in the government since the formation of the state in 1954. However, post that, the government was dissolved at least thrice and the President’s rule was imposed in 1977, 1979, and 2007. From 1994 onwards, the JD(S) began to use its leverage and partnered with the BJP and the Congress to suit its political needs. In the 2019 election, the JDS chose the Congress as its partner and this year, it is with the BJP.

After being asked about the timing of this tape leak, Congress spokesperson Kavitha Reddy said, “Yes, we are using this politically because the honour of more than 2,900 women is involved in this case. It is not enough if the PM speaks of mangalsutras of women. We are waiting to see how the BJP takes action against its partner.”

The case aside, Congress party persons who did not wish to be quoted expect an inflow of JD(S) workers into the grand old party after the general elections. “Do not forget that Siddaramaiah is a former JDS man. He knows the party too well and could engineer defections from the JDS to the Congress,” said one Congressman.

Historical data shows that the Vokkaligas have voted between the Congress and the JD(S), with the Lingayats largely going with the BJP. So, it would not be wrong to surmise that a weaker JD(S) would be the Congress’ dream.

However, the BJP’s immediate castigation of the JDS is read by many in the political arena as an expected move. A Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh leader who oversees units in both Karnataka and Tamil Nadu said, “The BJP will gain at the regional parties’ loss just as it has in Telangana at the Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s loss after its senior leader K Kavitha’s jailing and the split in the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra.”

The heft of the national parties and their clandestine appeal for the Vokkaliga community’s votes will be put to the test on May 7 when the rest of the 14 seats will go to polls.

Deepika Amirapu is a freelance journalist based in Hyderabad. Each week, Southern Lights examines the big story from one of the five states of South India.