Northeastern View | Fresh influx of refugees into southern Mizoram reveals new complications in western Myanmar

Emerging frictions in southern Mizoram

Since the military overthrew the civilian government in Myanmar in 2021, thousands have fled across the border into Mizoram. According to a recent Economic Times report, the recent arrivals have put the official refugee figures at 34,332. Unofficial estimates stand at some 50,000. Most of the refugees are Chins who share close ethnic ties with the Mizos, which is why they have been given shelter in Mizoram.

However, the Mizoram government and civil society remain wary of the asylum situation, which has put additional stress on the state’s limited finances and public service infrastructure, especially along the border districts. There are also local concerns around an upsurge in cross-border narcotics smuggling because of the conflict next door.

Beyond these, stray incidents of violence between Myanmar nationals and locals have sparked tensions in southern Mizoram. In March 2023, Mara Thyutlia Pi, a local civil society body representing the Mara tribe in Siaha district, decided to ‘seal’ the India-Myanmar border after accusing Chin armed groups of murdering three people from the adjoining Lawngtlai district who had crossed over and were found charred to death inside Myanmar.

Weeks later, they accused the Chin Defence Force (CDF)’s Mindat unit of committing the murders and directed the group to hand over the accused to India. The Central Young Lai Association (CYLA), a civil society body representing the Lai tribe from the adjoining Lawngtlai district, also raised alarm bells about the whole situation.

Once again, in January, police arrested four Myanmar nationals for allegedly murdering a resident of Siaha town. The Mizo Zirlai Pawl (MZP), an influential Mizo civil society organisation, claimed that the accused belonged to Myanmar’s Rakhine State and had ties to the AA. While these are little more than one-off incidents, they have sparked xenophobic anxieties in certain pockets along the border in Mizoram.

New push factors for refugees

Besides refugees from Myanmar, southern Mizoram has also received asylum seekers from neighbouring Bangladesh. Beginning in November 2022, some 1100 Chin-Kuki people from the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) region of eastern Bangladesh have fled across the border into southern Mizoram’s Lawngtlai district.

The refugees, belonging to the Bawm sub-tribe, were forced to enter India following fierce clashes between Bangladeshi security forces and a local ethnic armed group known as the Kuki-Chin National Front (KCNF). The current Mizoram government, led by the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), has welcomed them. Yet, recent reports suggest continuing violence in CHT, which could lead to fresh influxes and greater pressure on border district administrations in south Mizoram.

What’s more, this January, some 276 soldiers from the Myanmar military fled across the border into Lawngtlai district after the AA cornered them. While they were eventually repatriated, the likelihood of similar trespasses in the future remains high as the civil war next door rages on.

Further, according to some reports in Burmese and Bangladeshi media, the AA is planning to settle people from Rakhine State currently living in Bangladesh in Paletwa, which it captured after a fierce battle with the Myanmar junta in January. The ethnic armed group is allegedly forcing local Chins to build settlements for the new arrivals and also serve in its ranks, forcing them to flee.

This has sharpened tensions with other powerful Chin armed groups. Among them, the Chin National Front/Army (CNF/A), which dominates the newly-established ‘Chinland Council’, sees the AA as trespassers in their territory. On the other hand, a separate set of Chin armed groups, organised under the ‘Chin Brotherhood Alliance’, has been working with the AA to consolidate their influence in southern and southeastern Chin State.

Need for stability

These conflicting political-military interests between different Chin groups and the AA could trigger fresh conflict right across the Indian border, which would force more people to flee to Mizoram.

Both sides would especially vie for control of Paletwa, a strategically important hub located just south of Mizoram’s Siaha and Lawngtlai districts, with large-scale investments in connectivity infrastructure under the India-funded Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit and Transport Project (KMMTTP). Whoever controls Paletwa will command strategic and economic leverage over other groups in western Myanmar as well as over India.

Even as the hydra-headed revolutionary war against the Burmese junta roils and fresh inter-group faultlines emerge along the borders, India will have to work with all groups in Chin and Rakhine States to ensure security and stability along the border, including ensuring the safety of civilians trapped in active conflict zones. New Delhi will also need to work with the Mizoram government to ensure that asylum seekers are protected.

India must also dial up pressure on the brutal military regime in Naypyitaw to stop attacking its own people and fueling an avoidable war along the India-Myanmar border. A federal democracy in Myanmar is in India's national interest.

Angshuman Choudhury is an Associate Fellow with the Centre for Policy Research, and focuses on Northeast India and Myanmar. The views expressed are personal.