The ad aimed to undermine the previous Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, considered one of the most unnatural alliances in the state, comprising Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena. It silently celebrated the BJP’s success in toppling the MVA by engineering one of the biggest splits in Shiv Sena's history in 2022. The tagline was “jantechya charni maatha, garja Maharashtra majha” (our heads lie at the feet of the people, hail my Maharashtra!). Ironically, less than a year later, the people of Maharashtra voted in one of the most decisive elections in recent years, leaving the BJP-led Mahayuti shattered and changing the political equations in Maharashtra, a state often seen as a microcosm of national political trends.

As the results of the eighteenth Lok Sabha elections were declared on June 4 (Tuesday), the BJP-led NDA, despite crossing the majority mark, suffered a severe setback. The INDIA bloc, mainly led by Congress and its various national and regional allies, recorded thumping victories across the country, totalling 233 seats, just 59 short of the NDA’s 292. In Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti managed to win only 17 seats (BJP-9, Shiv Sena-7, NCP (Ajit Pawar)- 1). In contrast, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) won 30 seats (Congress-13, NCP (Sharad Pawar)-8, Shiv Sena (UBT)- 9), highlighting a major shift in voter mandate against the BJP despite its previous successes in 2014 and 2019. This piece examines the reasons for these shifting tides and what these results hint at for the future of these two alliances.

People’s agendas and issues took centerstage

Electoral campaigning and the results showed that people across Maharashtra, both urban and rural, largely preferred parties and candidates who addressed their issues and agendas. The BJP and its allies campaigned on parochial issues such as the Ram Temple construction and promises to keep minorities at bay, alongside promises of big-ticket projects like the bullet train. However, in rural Maharashtra, voters resonated more with the MVA’s grounded campaign, which focused on addressing the ongoing agrarian crisis, providing solutions to unemployment, and improving healthcare and education.

The election results indicate that Maharashtra's voters unequivocally set their agenda, demanding solutions to real problems. They questioned the candidates who came for campaigning and made tall promises, asking tough questions about the BJP’s promise of depositing Rs. 15 lakhs in beneficiaries' accounts or providing Minimum Support Price (MSP) to farmers.

Setback to the BJP and resurgence of Congress

The election results signify a major setback for the BJP, viewed by many as the primary architect behind Maharashtra's political turmoil. The BJP's role in engineering splits within the Shiv Sena and the NCP not only destabilised the state government but also eroded the party's credibility among voters. This perception overshadowed its developmental agenda, leading to a significant decline in voter support. Despite showing confidence in winning Maharashtra with the largest number of seats, the BJP was reduced to single-digit seats, struggling to keep afloat in the state despite securing a majority at the centre.

Since 2019, a silent wave has been brewing against the BJP in Maharashtra. The party’s role in engineering splits and its lack of appeal due to poor governance were crucial factors in this swing. The results also highlighted the BJP's poor planning and management despite having strong leaders like Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar in the alliance. In contrast, the Congress, regarded as the underdog, worked consistently on reviving itself at the local and national levels. Welfare schemes like NYAY and Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra resonated strongly among ordinary voters in the state.

Local leaders and organic campaigns

The MVA successfully leveraged local leaders and grassroots campaigns to resonate with the electorate. Unlike the BJP-led Mahayuti, which relied heavily on the star power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, the MVA's approach was more grounded. The BJP's grand displays of strength, characterized by high-profile rallies and media spectacles, failed to match the MVA's organic and community-centred outreach. Voters responded more positively to the MVA's focus on local issues and personal connections, which appeared more genuine and impactful. Local leaders across the three MVA parties worked tirelessly to build confidence in the alliance throughout the state.

A key feature of Indian elections, particularly true in Maharashtra, is that voter choices are often determined by affinity and confidence in a candidate or their endorser. The MVA’s grassroots cadre and the reach commanded by Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) were significant advantages. Congress also utilized its local leadership, which worked silently on the ground and had a good understanding of local issues and sentiments. While the Mahayuti’s campaigns were big-budget spectacles, the MVA's campaigns were vibrant, bolstered by substantial local support. Sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar was evident as large crowds attended MVA rallies. This local affinity helped MVA candidates, while prominent Mahayuti candidates like Sunetra Pawar, Pankaja Munde, and Raosaheb Danave lost despite significant campaigns.

At the local level, karyakartas popularised phrases like “ab ki baar, tadipar” (this time we will expel them), a play on the BJP’s “abki baar, 400 paar” (this time, over 400 seats). Shiv Sena (UBT), starting from scratch after the vertical split, popularised the narrative of "gaddars" (traitors) against those who crossed over to the BJP-led Mahayuti and highlighted corruption charges against such leaders. The Election Commission’s phased election schedule favoured the MVA, giving it enough time to popularize these narratives locally. Despite newly allotted symbols and party names, grassroots-level messaging helped the MVA inch towards victory.

Rural distress, agrarian crisis, and social engineering

Maharashtra's agrarian crisis, marked by farmer suicides, crop failures, and inadequate governmental support, has been persistent for many years. The recent changing climate and drought-like conditions, especially in Vidarbha and Marathwada, have worsened the crisis for voters dependent on agriculture. The MVA’s focus on agrarian issues resonated deeply with the rural electorate, who felt neglected by the central BJP-led government. Election results suggest that constituencies from Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Maharashtra, and Western Maharashtra, dealing with long-standing agrarian distress, strongly resisted the Mahayuti, giving a major setback to the BJP and placing their faith in INC and NCP (SP).

A large number of Marathas in these regions, pushing for reservations in the state, were left disillusioned by the BJP's inaction despite promises, and they supported the MVA. In Marathwada, the epicentre of Maratha politics for several years, the Mahayuti lost 7 of the 8 seats contested. The BJP lost all 4 seats from Marathwada, which it had won in the previous election.

A standout strategy of the MVA’s campaign was its masterful social engineering. The alliance built an inclusive coalition spanning various age groups, caste groups, and communities, including Dalits, Muslims, Adivasis, and Marathas. This inclusive rhetoric contrasted sharply with the BJP’s strategy of religious polarization and majoritarianism. The MVA also effectively championed the local Marathi manoos, criticising the BJP for its Gujarat appeasement. This strategy proved a masterstroke, securing widespread support across Maharashtra.

The future of alliances

The Lok Sabha election results will set the stage for upcoming elections to Maharashtra’s legislative assemblies and local bodies. The future of the two alliances will significantly influence electoral outcomes. The current mood favours the MVA, whose partners need to stick together for the greater good and consolidate their support base in areas where they have not made a significant impact. For instance, the Shiv Sena (UBT) needs to introspect on its losses in Konkan, a region it once dominated. It will also be important to observe whether internal dynamics within the alliance shift, with Congress, previously considered the weakest player, winning the majority of seats for the alliance this time.

The Mahayuti dynamics are also likely to see seismic shifts. Despite the narrative against Eknath Shinde due to his exit from the party, he still managed significant wins for the alliance and commanded influence within the state’s local cadre. Ajit Pawar, despite his clout, has lesser bargaining power due to his poor performance, with just one seat in the Lok Sabha elections. It will be interesting to see if leaders from Shiv Sena and NCP who moved to the Mahayuti return to their MVA counterparts considering the growing clout of the alliance in the state. While the high-intensity drama has just begun in Maharashtra, it is clear that the common voter will ultimately call the shots this time.

Dr. Sanjay Patil is a Mumbai-based researcher who works on Maharashtra Politics and Urban Informality. His doctoral work looks at the journey of Shiv Sena between 1985 and 2022.