Maha News | MVA versus Mahayuti is actually a Pawar versus Fadnavis showdown

For several reasons, the contest for 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra is the beginning of the end: The battle over control of Maharashtra politics between Sharad Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis will be resolved one way or another. Pawar, an octogenarian, controlled it for well over two decades and is trying to retain his hold, Fadnavis, younger by three decades, is trying to gain it completely.

The tussle began after the 2014 assembly election when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party (but short of a simple majority) and formed the government with Pawar declaring his unconditional support to the BJP. The Shiv Sena, hoping to bargain hard, was robbed of its power and when it eventually joined the government after six months, it did so on terms set by the BJP. This sowed seeds of discontent in the saffron alliance, which eventually split after the 2019 elections. The next few years saw Fadnavis trying to reduce Pawar’s dominance in the cooperative sector, the backbone of the rural economy in a significant part of Maharashtra. Fadnavis also started wooing Maratha leaders, especially in western Maharashtra, to reduce the veteran leader’s hold in Maratha politics.

Pawar responded by reuniting with the Congress whom he had dumped before the 2014 assembly elections. He ensured that Fadnavis remained the opposition’s main target. Ahead of the 2019 assembly elections, when he was summoned by the Enforcement Directorate in a case related to Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank, Pawar turned it into an opportunity as his party projected it as Fadnavis’ bid to arrest and trouble the veteran leader. His blow against Fadnavis came after the 2019 assembly elections when he convinced Uddhav Thackeray that he could be chief minister and put together an unlikely alliance in the form of Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) to keep the BJP out of power.

Then Fadnavis and the BJP helped Eknath Shinde split the Shiv Sena, pull down the MVA government and split Pawar’s party by supporting his nephew Ajit Pawar. In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, the battle lines are clear. Fadnavis-BJP wants to ensure that Pawar’s influence on Maharashtra politics ends while Pawar is trying to end Fadnavis’ dominance and also put BJP on the back foot. This crucial battle between the two will begin with the Lok Sabha elections and end with the assembly elections to be held later. For Pawar, this is a battle for political survival. On the other hand, Fadnavis is at a crucial stage in his political career when he has to put on a good show for the BJP so that he can aim for national-level politics.

The BJP won over 40 seats in Maharashtra in the last two Lok Sabha elections. Those seats were important in the party’s overall tally at the national level. This time too, Maharashtra’s 48 seats are important for BJP’s return to power, probably more than in the past two elections.

Fadnavis is leading the Mahayuti’s campaign. Right from forging alliances, deciding seat-share among allies and selecting candidates (not just for the BJP but in several cases, for allies too) to damage control.

On the other side of the political divide, Pawar is the fulcrum of the opposition unity. He is using all his experience and skill to ensure that MVA picks up strong candidates with the potential to win elections. He knows the caste arithmetic and local factors. The MVA accepted his suggestion that the elective merit of a candidate — and not the party — should be the criteria for selecting candidates. It was Pawar who suggested that the Kolhapur seat should be given to Shahu Maharaj, the 12th descendant of the Maratha king Shivaji Maharaj. He then convinced Shahu Maharaj to contest the elections. He gave the Raigad seat to Shiv Sena (UBT) since the latter had a strong candidate in Anant Geete. He is working out several permutations and combinations to ensure that the MVA wins a sizeable number of Lok Sabha seats.

It is clear that the Lok Sabha election would set the tone for the assembly elections to be held later this year. If the MVA manages to win 15 to 20 Lok Sabha seats, it would boost all three parties that have suffered setbacks due to splits or defections. It would also mean that the MVA can find support in 100 or more assembly constituencies (one Lok Sabha constituency has six assembly segments). This could also make the task of returning to power difficult for the ruling coalition. That is why Fadnavis and co want to ensure that the opposition does not reach a double-digit tally like in the 2014 and 2019 general elections.

A lot is at stake for the duo who have been in a vicious war for almost a decade. As for Maharashtra, the outcome will show whether the people endorse what has happened for power in the state since 2019.

Shailesh Gaikwad, political editor of HT Mumbai, breaks down the most important political news in Maharashtra this week