The MVA leaders were keen on the inclusion of the VBA due to its appeal among socially backward classes and minorities. After much discussion, the three parties agreed to let VBA join the coalition. Ambedkar — the grandson of Dalit icon Dr BR Ambedkar — joined the seat-sharing talks on February 2.

The MVA leaders are hoping that getting smaller parties on board will consolidate votes against the BJP and its allies in the upcoming Lok Sabha and state assembly elections this year — the smaller parties, which are aiming for the same slice of voters, will not split the Opposition’s votes if they fight together. In a close contest, a small percentage of votes can make a difference. Besides, a united Opposition is powerful optics and may help voters see the MVA as a strong contender against the BJP-led alliance.

The VBA does not have a single MLA in the state assembly, but it is one of the most prominent parties among the smaller ones in the state. It polled 6.92% votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)-VBA alliance candidate Imtiaz Jaleel won the Aurangabad (now called Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar) seat. Votes polled by the VBA led to the defeat of Congress-NCP candidates in five Lok Sabha constituencies, including former chief ministers Sushilkumar Shinde and Ashok Chavan. However, VBA could not win a single seat in the assembly elections held six months later that year. Its vote percentage came down to 4.57%. It also parted ways with AIMIM before the assembly elections. The VBA influences Scheduled Castes and Other Backward Classes as well as Muslim voters.

Thackeray was keen to include Ambedkar since his outfit has a significant following among socially backward communities. Though both Congress and Sharad Pawar were reportedly not willing to trust Ambedkar initially, ground realities following the split in Shiv Sena and NCP convinced them otherwise.

Last week, Ambedkar’s remarks embarrassed his new allies when he said that the INDIA bloc was over.

“The INDIA bloc no longer exists as most of the major regional parties have left it. Congress and Samajwadi Party will contest separately, it seems. Trinamool Congress has already parted ways,” he said while talking to media persons immediately after the MVA meeting at a south Mumbai hotel. He also advised his new allies to prevent such a scenario in the state. He also insisted that he is not part of the MVA yet since he hasn’t spoken with Congress’ national leadership yet.

The Congress is currently in seat-sharing talks with both SP and TMC — no decision about the parties contesting separately has been announced in West Bengal till now; in UP, the SP recently announced a tranche of seats that its allies, including the Congress, will contest.

Also read: Is all well in INDIA seat-sharing talks in UP?

The discomfort goes back a few years. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, leaders from the Congress and Pawar-led NCP had alleged that Ambedkar had a tacit understanding with the BJP to defeat Congress-NCP candidates by splitting their voters—a charge that Ambedkar had vehemently denied.

“Nobody is feeling confident about him at this juncture. We will see how it goes but we will also be preparing to contest without the VBA because he may exit the coalition at the eleventh hour,” said a senior Congress leader who did wish to be named.

The allies, too, will have to resolve the issue of seat sharing. Currently, the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) has three sitting MPs while Shiv Sena (UBT) has five. Congress won the Chandrapur seat in 2019 but its MP Chandrakant Dhanorkar passed away. The byelection has not yet been held. The splits in Shiv Sena and NCP have made calculations complicated as other allies are staking a claim on seats where the sitting MPs of the two parties are now with rebel factions. Ambedkar has sought six seats including Mumbai South Central which was won by Shiv Sena in 2019 but its sitting MP Rahul Shewale defected to the Eknath Shinde-led faction.

“We have reached a broad understanding over seat-sharing. There is a dispute over 10 to 12 seats which would be sorted out in a fortnight. More than factors like who won how many times in the past we are looking at the current situation post-split in two parties and the winnability of the available candidates,” said a senior leader from Shiv Sena (UBT) who has been participating in seat-sharing talks.

“The inclusion of VBA and smaller parties in the MVA will help the Opposition in the elections. Though they have limited zones of influence, it would send a message to the electorate that they are a strong alternative,” said Surendra Jondhale, a Mumbai-based political analyst. “However, they will have to bury their egos, sort out their issues and go before the people with an agenda. Mere opposition to PM Modi won’t work. They need to tell people what their agenda is,” he added.

With 48 Lok Sabha seats, second highest after Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Maharashtra is one of the states that will play a key role in the Opposition’s plans to stop the Modi juggernaut. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 41 seats. Things have changed since then. Shiv Sena parted ways with the BJP after the 2019 assembly elections and formed the MVA with the NCP and the Congress. Just when the MVA seemed to be consolidating its position after the pandemic, Eknath Shinde split the Shiv Sena and pulled down the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government. A year later, the NCP was split by Ajit Pawar, Sharad Pawar’s nephew, who joined the Shiv Sena-BJP government. Since then, the political atmosphere in Maharashtra has been in turmoil.

Internal surveys conducted by the BJP and its allies show they may not repeat the 2019 performance, but things are looking better for them after the two splits. It is against this backdrop that the MVA must put up a united fight in Maharashtra. According to the Opposition, even a loss of 10 seats will affect BJP’s national tally.

The current Maratha reservation row will quite likely play an important role in the upcoming polls.

“OBCs form a strong support base for BJP. The ruling alliance led by CM Eknath Shinde is wooing Marathas who seem to be fragmented. The Opposition will have a tough task forming the right combination of communities to win elections,” Jondhale said.

Among the other parties that form part of the MVA coalition, the Samajwadi Party has two seats in the assembly, while the CPI (M) and PWP have one MLA each. All three have pockets of support in certain areas. Significantly, though the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) quit the INDIA bloc to join hands with the BJP, his party's Maharashtra unit has chosen to stick with the MVA. The JD (U) however does not have any presence in Maharashtra.

Shailesh Gaikwad, political editor of HT Mumbai, breaks down the most important political news in Maharashtra in the week