Would the BJP-Shiv Sena's strategic picks pay off in Mumbai?

The ruling alliance partners, Shiv Sena and the BJP took a long time to decide which seats each of the two would contest and who would be fielded as candidates.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena contested in an alliance, both parties won three seats each. The same seats are now being contested by the two parties. Of the three Sena MPs, Rahul Shewale (Mumbai south central constituency) and Gajanan Kirtikar (Mumbai north west) sided with Shinde, while Arvind Sawant (Mumbai South) stayed with Uddhav Thackeray. Shinde renominated Shewale, while Kirtikar refused to contest as Shiv Sena (UBT) fielded his son Amol in the same constituency.

On Tuesday, Shinde fielded Ravindra Waikar, the MLA from Jogeshwari who joined his party recently, even as he was being probed by investigating agencies for alleged irregularities. Shinde faced a real problem in the prestigious Mumbai south constituency. The BJP was keen to contest there and for about a year it had begun projecting the state assembly speaker Rahul Narwekar as a potential candidate. Narwekar visited various areas under the constituency, meeting people, attending local programmes and trying to solve problems of the residents in various areas even outside his Colaba assembly constituency. However, the BJP recently decided to concede the seat to Sena.

“In the surveys conducted by our party in the constituency, Narwekar seemed to be a sticky wicket due to his verdict in the Sena split in favour of the Shinde faction. As such, there was no guarantee he would be able to get traditional Shiv Sena votes in the Parel-Lalbaug belt,” said a senior BJP legislator from the city. “The other probable was Mangal Prabhat Lodha who is also a legislator from south Mumbai. However, there were apprehensions within the party that Thackeray faction could portray the contest as a fight between a Marathi and a Gujarati-Marwari candidate. This could have resulted in Marathi voters opting for Shiv Sena (UBT),” he added.

The BJP then accepted Shinde’s claim over the seat and the chief minister chose Byculla MLA Yamini Jadhav. Her husband, Yashwant Jadhav, was once considered close to Uddhav Thackeray. Like some other MLAs, Jadhav was investigated by the Income Tax Department and the Enforcement Directorate. The Jadhavs shifted loyalties to the Shinde faction and eventually, the investigation against them went cold.

Yamini Jadhav faces an uphill task with barely 18 days to campaign against Sawant, who has already completed a round of campaigning. Besides, the two-term MP is a known name in the constituency that is spread from Cuffe Parade to Malabar Hill and from Worli to the Marathi heartland of Parel-Lalbaug.

On the other end of the city, Mumbai's north constituency will see a contest between Union minister Piyush Goyal and Congress candidate Bhushan Patil, considered a political lightweight. The BJP has won the seat for three decades except in 2004 when actor Govinda wrested it for the Congress. Across Mumbai, this is the only seat where the outcome is predictable. The remaining five seats are likely to see close contests.

Significantly, the BJP dropped all three sitting MPs in Mumbai and fielded new faces. Gopal Shetty was replaced by Goyal in Mumbai north, Poonam Mahajan was replaced by senior lawyer Ujjwal Nikam in Mumbai north central and Mulund MLA Mihir Kotecha was fielded in place of Manoj Kotak in Mumbai north east. Kotecha faces Shiv Sena (UBT) nominee Sanjay Patil in this constituency spread over eastern suburbs with a significant population of Marathi, Gujarati and Muslim voters. This constituency is also witnessing a Marathi versus Gujarati narrative by the Thackeray faction.

Nikam’s candidature was a surprise to local workers of the BJP. “Our assessment showed Mahajan may be unable to get elected for a third term. The options before the party were city BJP chief Ashish Shelar and MLA Ameet Satam but ultimately it was decided to field Nikam who was the public prosecutor in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack case. He is a popular name and we hope to get the benefit of the same,” said a key BJP leader.

Shiv Sena (UBT) rallying forces against against the Shinde faction

Among the parties, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) seemed to have planned well in advance. Thackeray had finalised the names of three candidates— Arvind Sawant (south), Sanjay Patil (north east) and Amol Kirtikar (north west) even before the election schedule was announced. He had even declared their names and they had begun campaigning. Only Anil Desai’s candidature was announced a little later as the Congress had staked a claim on the Mumbai south central seat. A Thackeray faction insider said they are confident of Sawant and Kirtikar winning their seats and expect a close fight for Desai and Patil.

“The combination of Marathi, Muslim and Dalit votes in Mumbai south constituency could work in our favour. In the case of the north west constituency, Amol Kirtikar was a natural choice since he has been handling his father’s constituency for the past few years. He is a known name in the constituency and his reach goes beyond Sena’s Marathi vote bank,” said a senior Sena (UBT) leader.

Congress' fate hangs in the balance in Mumbai

Congress is not happy with the way things turned out for them. It got only two out of six seats in Mumbai. Of them, Mumbai north is a BJP stronghold. It sees chances of winning in north central where it has fielded its city unit chief Varsha Gaikwad. “The constituency has a significant number of Dalit and Muslim population and a number of smaller linguistic and religious groups including east Indians. Most of them were traditional Congress supporters. Actor Sunil Dutt and later his daughter Priya Dutt were winning this seat till 2014 when Poonam Mahajan wrested it and won two times in a row. We are aiming to take it back now,” said a former Congress legislator from the area. The BJP is banking on Marathi and Gujarati voters. Nikam’s image with a strong nationalism pitch could become an advantage here, party leaders said.

In Mumbai south central, which is spread from Shivaji Park to Dharavi to slums in eastern suburbs, the contest between sitting MP Shewale and Thackeray faction’s Anil Desai could be a close fight.

With the emergence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the national stage, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine dominated Mumbai in Lok Sabha polls by winning all six seats in the 2014 and 2019 elections. The leaders from both the ruling parties admit that things would not be so easy for them this time. Whether the two parties manage to retain all seats or whether Shiv Sena (UBT) with its MVA allies manages to make a dent in the NDA tally here remains to be seen.

Shailesh Gaikwad, political editor of HT Mumbai, breaks down the most important political news in Maharashtra this week