Notwithstanding the neglect of the area since Congress’s exit from Central power in 2014, many in the constituency exude confidence about a Gandhi winning the seat, even if the Congress does not have a single other seat in the state anymore, besides Rae Bareli.

Retired professor of political science Dr RB Verma said, “I can’t say which way the wind will flow across the country but I can say with confidence that no one will be able to defeat Rahul or Priyanka. This is one area where even the poor had refused free ration only because the bags had Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s picture. Perhaps, it’s difficult for people to understand the emotional attachment as well as the public conviction that their progress depends on their association with the Nehru family.”

People are hopeful Sonia will not disappoint them and continue the relationship .

In 2004, while launching Rahul from Amethi, Sonia had said, “I am handing over my son to you in the same manner in which Indira Gandhi once gave her son Rajiv Gandhi to this constituency.”

And the same year, when she had moved to her mother-in-law’s constituency Rae Bareli, she had said, “I am here to continue that atoot rishta [unbreakable bond] with you.”

As of now the locals are pinning their hopes on the indication they are getting from various quarters besides Sonia’s letter. In the emotional message, Sonia recalled the family's ties with the Lok Sabha constituency. “The roots of our family in Rae Bareli are very deep. I know you will stand by me and my family in future too, just as in the past.”

“Rae Bareli is the Gandhi family’s seat. It will remain with the family,” said Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee president Ajay Rai. Similar indications have been given by others including Jai Ram Naresh, district Congress Committee president Pankaj Tiwari.

However, Ajay Agarwal, who claims to be the prospective BJP candidate, firmly believes Rae Bareli is as drenched in Ram fervour as the rest of the country.

Though Agarwal is yet to announce his candidature, he has already started campaigning in the constituency. An advocate by profession, Agarwal fought the Bofors case against the Gandhis in the Supreme Court. “I have given the slogan “UP mein 80 mein 80” (80 out of 80 in UP), which obviously includes Rae Bareli. According to him the area is starving for development and people know only Narendra Modi can guarantee it.”

Agarwal had contested the seat in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and though his candidature was announced by the BJP leadership a day before the last date for filing of the nomination papers, he polled 173,721 votes as against 526,434 polled in favour of Sonia Gandhi. He did not contest in 2019 and the BJP fielded Dinesh Pratap Singh.

Nonetheless, Rae Bareli is the last Congress citadel which the BJP is keen to capture in UP. Going by the Congress-BJP face-off in Amethi, witnessed during Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra, the fight is going to be fierce in Rae Bareli too.“The BJP did try to create some disturbance in some pockets but Congress is in a much stronger position in Rae Bareli,” Verma said.

The Nehru-Gandhi’s relationship with Rae Bareli goes back to pre-Independence days. Moti Lal Nehru, Jawaharlal’s father, Indian National Congress member and freedom fighter, cultivated it as his karma bhumi [site of action].

Post-independence, the constituency was represented in the Lok Sabha by Feroze Gandhi, Indira Gandhi’s husband, Indira herself, and Sonia Gandhi. In 72 years of its electoral history, the Congress has won 17 of the 20 Lok Sabha elections here. The Gandhis held the seat for over three decades.

Verma, who has written a yet-to-be-released book on 100 years of the Nehru family’s relationship with Rae Bareli says the family’s association dates back to 1920 when Moti Lal Nehru started visiting the area.

Moti Lal Nehru, a politician and lawyer, moved from Agra to Allahabad after the high court moved. Subsequently, his son Jawaharlal Nehru started making frequent forays to Rae Bareli during the country’s national movement. People recall how Nehru was the first to reach Munshiganj after the firing on farmers by the British regime on January 7, 1921. Many describe it as the second biggest massacre after Jallianwala Bagh. Rafi Ahmad Kidwai, Ram Manohar Lohia and Raj Narain were also significant political workers connected to Rae Bareli.

Thus, in 1952 when the first elections were held in post-Independent India, Feroze Gandhi was sent to Rae Bareli. ON Bhargawa, a close associate of the Nehru family, once told HT that Kidwai, who spearheaded a farmers movement in Rae Bareli was also close to Nehru and brought Feroze there. The first time people saw him was on the day he filed his nomination papers, yet he won the seat with a thumping majority. Later he cultivated a personal rapport with his voters. “He drove a green station wagon all across the constituency, and spent nights in villages.”

Rae Bareli is the only constituency that the Congress won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Uttar Pradesh. Gone are the days when Indira Gandhi could ensure victory of Congress candidate Arun Nehru in 1980 and 1984 general elections, even after vacating the seat in favour of Medak. (Indira Gandhi had lost the seat to socialist leader Raj Narain in 1977. Janata Party formed the government but collapsed in 1980 due to internal contradictions.)

Even Rajiv Gandhi ensured victory of a non-Gandhi — Sheila Kaul — in 1989 and 1991 during the heydays of the Congress party. After his death, when Sonia Gandhi was still ambivalent on entering politics, the party lost the seat to the BJP in 1996 and 1998.

After entering politics in 1997, Sonia Gandhi successfully contested from the Amethi Lok Sabha seat in 1999 and ensured a Congress victory in Rae Bareli, too. Family friend Captain Satish Sharma, preserving the seat for the Gandhi family, won the election.

Sonia decided to field Rahul from Amethi and move to her mothers-in-law's constituency in 2004. Since then, Sonia has won all Lok Sabha elections, though the Congress lost in all the five assembly segments in the 2012 and 2022 UP assembly elections.

Rae Bareli is a stronghold of the Samajwadi Party, which has stayed away from the Rae Bareli and Amethi Lok Sabha seats as a political courtesy. However, in the 2022 assembly elections, SP won in four assembly segments while BJP won one.

While it will be easy for a Gandhi to win in their stronghold, the question today is, will a non-Gandhi make it to the Lok Sabha in the forthcoming elections from Rae Bareli?

Sunita Aron is a long-time journalist based in Lucknow. You can find her on X as @overto. The weekly column tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country's most populous state. The views expressed are personal.