The Jamaat and separatist leaders have a history of boycotting elections and terming those who participate in the electoral process as “collaborators” or those who were opposed to ‘azadi’ or to their cause of separatism. But the situation is different in 2024 when every party is hoping to be represented in the assembly.

Polling is being conducted in three phases on September 18, 25, and October 1, while the counting of votes will take place on October 4.

Will the NC-Congress alliance work?

The Congress and the National Conference, part of the INDIA bloc formed in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, sealed the deal on seat-sharing last week with the NC bagging 51 seats and the Congress 32; two seats were left for allies CPI(M) and Panthers Party.

Leaders of both the NC and the Congress were enthusiastic about the alliance, particularly after Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and party president Mallikarjun Kharge visited NC chief Farooq Abdullah and vice-president Omar Abdullah at their home. It remains to be seen whether this understanding translates into collaboration at the level of the party cadres. There are murmurs of discontent over ticket distribution and the parties are engaged in a “friendly contest” in five assembly segments.

“This is the first time such a vibrant alliance has taken place in Jammu and Kashmir. Despite some shortcomings, the alliance will succeed in achieving its target,” Congress general secretary, Ghulam Ahmad Mir, who is contesting from Dooru-Anantnag, said.

His views were echoed by Nasir Aslam Wani, the NC provincial chief. “The alliance will be successful because they represent the aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. We want to get back what has been taken away from us. People are fed up with the BJP and their proxies.”

Though the Congress does not have a significant presence in Kashmir, the alliance with the NC could help it in pockets of the Jammu division, where party leaders are hopeful of a turnaround. “The sense at the ground level is that this alliance will be productive for both the parties,” said Congress spokesperson Sheikh Amir.

Pradeep Singh, a Jammu-based political analyst, said such political alliances are more successful in assembly elections than in parliamentary polls. “At present, the BJP is facing infighting and for the first time, there have been protests by cadres in Jammu against the leadership. Many leaders are feeling neglected as turncoats have been awarded tickets. If the BJP fails to overcome this resentment, it will be an advantage for the NC-Congress alliance. The BJP wants to improve its performance compared to the 2014 assembly elections when it had fallen short of only three seats in becoming the single largest party,” he said.

New challenger

With many candidates in the fray including influential independents who have already started campaigning, the elections could throw up a fragmented mandate. Being cadre-based parties, the NC, the Congress and the BJP will have an edge over rivals. The NC-Congress alliance could also attract fence-sitters.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the campaign of jailed legislator and Independent candidate Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, changed the poll dynamics of north Kashmir, resulting in the defeat of two powerful leaders, NC’s Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone from People’s Conference.

Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), which is now contesting in more than 50 of the 90 assembly segments, could throw a challenge to the established political parties. If he is released on bail, his party’s campaign could get a fillip. “I’m hopeful Engineer Rashid will be released from Tihar Jail. That can prove to be a big game-changer... across Kashmir,” said former legislator and AIP candidate Shoaib Lone.

Jamaat factor

Jamaat-e-Islami candidates are fighting the polls this time. For the first phase, five candidates have filed their nominations and over a dozen are expected to take part in the next two phases. In several constituencies, they will support independent candidates.

Despite being banned, the Jamaat-e-Islami is a strong cadre-based party with a presence across Kashmir. “The Jamaat has a support base in several pockets of Kashmir. The party-backed candidates are contesting after 35 years and if their cadres come out, they can win a few seats,” said Anjum Ahmad, a former Jamaat member.

Traditional strongholds

The strength of the NC-Congress alliance will be tested in the Jammu region. In the last assembly election, the NC could win only two seats from the Jammu division and the Congress also did not fare well in the region. Though the BJP won both the Lok Sabha seats in the Jammu region, apparent internal bickering against the policies of the Centre could give the NC-Congress alliance an edge. However, it also depends on how forcefully the BJP campaigns in the Hindu belt, its traditional support base.

In the Lok Sabha election, the new parties, including the Apni Party, the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and the Peoples Conference, which were dubbed as proxies of the BJP by the NC, failed to make any impact. However, all these parties have several potential winners who could wrest their strongholds like they did in past assembly elections and that’s likely the biggest worry for the alliance leadership.