CAA and the march of the saffron camp

For state BJP leaders, violence is not an internal matter of Bangladesh, but an issue linked to their demand for the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, or the CAA, and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Bengal, which shares India’s longest international border with Bangladesh.

Claiming that the attacks on Bangladeshi Hindus are part of a “systematic ethnic cleansing” that started decades ago, Bengal BJP leaders said the safeguard for Hindus is the CAA, which offers expedited citizenship to religious minorities (non-Muslims) who entered India from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh before December 31, 2014, in their escape from religious persecution.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), whose activities have helped the BJP rise in Bengal, has publicly appealed to the people of the state to protest. Ajay Kumar Nandy, head of the RSS east zone unit, has also urged the central government to take steps for the protection of Hindus in Bangladesh. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) led a protest rally in the BJP-ruled Tripura, which shares a border with the neighbouring nation.

The saffron camp, which could win only 77 of West Bengal’s 294 seats in the March-April assembly polls against a target of 200 — with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) bagging 213 — has now found reasons to be optimistic.

Will it affect polls?

All four districts where the bypolls will be held are located along the Bangladesh border and have a record of illegal infiltration, trans-border smuggling, and a history of an influx of Hindu refugees during India’s Partition in 1947 and later, during the creation of Bangladesh after the 1971 war. The BJP had won two of these seats in the March-April polls.

In Cooch Behar district in north Bengal, the Dinhata seat fell vacant after local BJP Lok Sabha member, Nisith Pramanik, who won by 57 votes in a close contest, did not take the oath to remain in the Lok Sabha. He was made Union minister of state for home affairs in July. During the 2011 census, Hindus constituted 74.06% of the total population of 2.81 million while Muslims comprised 25.54% in the constituency.

Like Dinhata, Santipur in south Bengal’s Nadia district goes to the polls as the local BJP Lok Sabha member, Jagannath Sarkar, opted to remain in Parliament after winning the state poll. Nadia has witnessed caste and religion playing a major role in recent elections because of the sizeable presence of Hindu refugees from Bangladesh. Many belong to Dalit communities, such as the Matuas, who were in focus during the BJP’s campaign in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections. Until 2011, Hindus comprised 72.15% of Nadia’s population of 5.18 million. Muslims accounted for 26.76%.

The Khardah seat in the densely populated North 24 Parganas is vacant because the TMC’s Kajal Sinha, who won it, died of Covid-19. In 2011, Hindus comprised 73.46% of the total population of 10 million, while Muslims constituted 25.82%.

At Gosaba in the adjoining South 24 Parganas district, Jayanta Naskar, a TMC veteran, died after his third victory. In 2011, Hindus, at 63.17% of the 8.16 million population, were in the majority, while Muslims comprised 35.57%.

Legislator and state president of the BJP’s women’s front, the Mahila Morcha, Agnimitra Paul, has been listed by the party among the star campaigners for the four bypolls. She says, “Hindus in Bengal always acted differently from their counterparts in other states by adopting a rather constricted secular stance and turning a blind eye to their own religious identity. I hope they will react to the brutality their brothers and sisters in Bangladesh are facing. Our campaign will focus on the murders and the two rape victims, one of whom is a minor.”

TMC leaders do not deny that the crisis Hindus face in Bangladesh provides an opportune moment for the BJP.

“This is an ideal issue for the BJP to drum up, but it will not reap any dividend. They are asking why Mamata Banerjee is silent on Bangladesh, but that does not answer why the prime minister is unusually silent. In the ongoing scenario, Modi obviously has more responsibility,” said TMC Lok Sabha member, Saugata Roy.

Experts believe that the Bengal BJP’s attempts to project the chief minister as a Muslim appeaser in these circumstances may not yield electoral profit.

“Have the chief ministers of BJP-ruled Assam and Tripura, which also share borders with Bangladesh, made any strong statement? They are silent, just like Mamata Banerjee, because it is an issue only Modi can discuss diplomatically with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who has already taken action,” said Kolkata-based political science professor, Udayan Bandopadhyay.

“Have BJP leaders ever thought that their clamour for CAA may have a counter-effect on Hindus in Bangladesh in the coming days? Muslim fundamentalist forces may see the new citizenship law for Hindu refugees as a chance and intensify their activities,” Bandopadhyay added.