The boisterous crowd at the Ekara ground along National Highway 22 greeted the PM’s statement with a huge roar.

Modi then went on to say that the best way to offer tributes to Ram Vilas Paswan was to ensure that his son won with a higher record margin than his father: This met with an even louder cheer.

Modi did not stop there, saying that he sees the younger Paswan as his own son, crediting him for being a successful MP and acknowledging the contribution of his mother, Reena Paswan, for bringing him up well.

Coming from Modi, who himself said that he normally does not say such things in public, the effluent praise for Paswan and the prediction of his win, seemed like a vindication of the NDA’s confidence about the electoral outcome of the Hajipur Lok Sabha seat, which goes to poll on May 20.

Modi’s statement must have come as music to the ears of Chirag, who stood up on stage and bowed to Modi with folded hands.

Despite Modi’s support, Paswan might have a reason to worry as Shiv Chandra Ram of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), who is standing against him in Hajipur, is being seen as the dark horse.

Chirag's anti-lobby active

Ravindra Singh, an engineer and a former state organisation secretary of the LJP (RV) before he and 21 others resigned from the party on April 3, protesting the distribution of tickets to ‘outsiders’, has been at the forefront of the anti-Paswan campaign. Also, among Paswan’s baiters are former loyalists Renu Kushwaha, Ajay Kushwaha, Satish Singh, Chitranjan Singh and Arun Singh, all of whom had held important posts in the LJP(RV), but were overlooked at the time when tickets were distributed.

Together, they have held three ‘maha panchayats’ (public meetings) this month, the Kushwaha maha panchayat on May 6 and two on May 15, after Modi praised Paswan, mobilising support from different caste groups against Ram Vilas’ son.

“We held the Swarn Mahapanchayat at Paswan Chowk in Hajipur and the Kurmi Mahapanchayat at Desri, 20 kms off Hajipur, both on May 15. We had a good representation from the forward caste and the OBC at both the public meetings that show a growing resentment against Chirag,” Singh claimed.

Singh said at least three of the five tickets the LJP(RV) got as part of the seat-sharing alliance with the NDA were given to outsiders by Paswan.

Of the remaining two, his brother-in-law Arun Bharti got one to fight from Jamui, and he retained one for himself to fight from Hajipur. Paswan ignored “…party workers and loyalists, who sided with him when Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP disintegrated into the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP), led by Pashupati Kumar Paras, and the LJP(RV), led by Chirag, on June 12, 2021,” alleged Singh.

Veena Devi, LJP(RV)’s sitting MP from Vaishali Lok Sabha seat, rubbished the allegations. “I got the party ticket purely on merit, as I was a sitting MP and had done good work in my constituency. There has been no money dealing in distribution of party tickets,” she told HT.

Chirag Paswan carries an outsider tag

Another factor that could work against him is the outsider tag he carries as he is not from Hajipur.

“Chirag is a two-time MP from Jamui but is contesting the Hajipur seat for the first time, ignoring his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, who was the sitting MP, having defeated RJD's Shiv Chandra Ram in 2019. Chirag has never stayed in Hajipur and does not even have a house here. The one (house) being made at Paswan Chowk remains incomplete for the last five-six years. Shiv Chandra Ram is a local from Mahua in Vaishali district,” said Singh.

Public perception about Ram, who used to be a part of a marriage band and even polished shoes for a living before Lalu Prasad, RJD chief, picked him in 1990 to make him a minister, is that he is a simple person from a humble background.

“As an MP, I will always be available for people of my constituency, if they need me, as I belong to Vaishali district, while one will have to go to Patna or Delhi to meet Chirag,” Ram said.

“There is already strong resentment among the people here that none from Chirag’s family has come to their doors soliciting their votes, while I have touched over 230 of the 248 panchayats in the Hajipur parliamentary constituency,” he added.

Chirag’s overconfidence will prove to be his undoing, Singh claimed. “He is either addressing public rallies, doing road shows or taking chopper rides to other constituencies, mobilising support for other NDA candidates. He has not visited any household as part of door-to-door canvassing. This has hurt public sentiments,” said Singh.

The caste equation in the constituency, Singh claimed is in favour of the RJD candidate, dominated as it is by members from the Yadav, Muslim, Ravidas and Sahni communities, which make for more than half of the 19.53 lakh voters in the parliamentary constituency, and are believed to be the RJD’s vote base.

He claimed that a sizeable chunk of the forward castes, including members of the Bhumihar, Rajput, and Brahmin communities and the Koeris and Kurmis among the other backward class (OBC), believed to be NDA voters, have split, and would vote for the RJD.

Add to it the Paras factor.

Chirag Paswan’s uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras who became a Union minister after splitting Ram Vilas’ party in 2021, eight months after the latter's death on October 8, 2020, is sulking. Though he continues to be with the NDA, despite getting an invite, he did not participate when his nephew filed his nomination from the Hajipur seat on May 2.

Party insiders say the NDA, which preferred the junior Paswan’s party over his uncle’s during the seat-sharing compact with alliance partners, had also ignored the latter during Modi’s public rally in Hajipur on May 13.

The LJP(RV), as it turns out, does not have a cadre base and relies heavily on the BJP and the Modi magic to pull it through.

Political cold war with JD(U)

Ties between the JD(U), a major ally of the NDA, and Paswan have seemingly become uneasy, especially with the latter’s criticism of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, said political analyst DM Diwakar, former director of the AN Sinha Institute of Social Sciences, Patna. Though the JD(U) may not openly work against Paswan, there is little it would do to support him.

“There has been a cold war between the JD(U) and Chirag’s party ever since the LJP(RV) put up pseudo-BJP candidates on each seat against the JD(U) in the last assembly elections that resulted in the weakening of the JD(U). Though the BJP is trying to project Chirag as a young leader against RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, Nitish Kumar will never be happy if Chirag emerges stronger,” said Diwakar.

“Chirag is banking on Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy, but he is not even a pale shadow of his father. Ram Vilas, who is credited with getting the zonal office of the railways, besides the National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research (NIPER) and the Institute of Hotel Management, Catering Technology and Applied Nutrition to Hajipur, had no enemy and was acceptable to everyone. Lalu Prasad had once called him a political weathercock. Ram Vilas had even resigned as the Union minister on differences with the NDA over communal and other issues. Chirag, however, is espousing the BJP agenda on Hindutva,” he added.

“On the other hand, RJD candidate Ram is a secular candidate, with a clear head, and is popular among the weaker sections of the society, as he has never antagonised anyone. He is also non-controversial. He has the winnability quotient. So, it is definitely not going to be a cakewalk for Chirag,” Diwakar said.

Among the NDA constituents, the JD(U) is contesting on 16 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP is fighting on 17, the LJP(RV) on five, and former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha-led Lok Jan Morcha and the Hindustani Awam Morcha of Jitan Ram Manjhi, former chief minister of Bihar, on one each.