The Election Commission has sounded the poll bugle, and the four-phase polling in Odisha for the 147-member assembly and 21 Lok Sabha seats is set for May 13, 2024. Yet, the backroom negotiations and the intense discussions between BJP and BJD over the last fortnight, beginning March 6, finally ended on Friday as the BJP’s central leadership decided to call off the parleys, bringing finality to the biggest political suspense in the recent history of Odisha.

To be sure, any alliance between a state’s ruling party and its principal Opposition defies all sorts of conventional logic and is essentially a subversion of popular sentiment. But the seeds of the impending alliance were sown over the last few years as the bonhomie between the two was clear for everyone to see. Patnaik has been bailing out the BJP in the last five years, supporting almost all its bills such as the scrapping of Article 370, Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Amendment Bill, 2019 and Right to Information (Amendment) Bill, 2019, demonetisation and the Delhi Services Act, 2023 which allows the Centre to retain control over the bureaucracy in Delhi. The BJD also voted against the no-confidence motion brought in by a united opposition last year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also hailed BJP Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik as his friend and called him a “popular chief minister” on two occasions earlier this year.

Why the alliance discussions began

There were four factors in favour of the two parties aligning.

First, the push for the alliance with the BJD had come from PM Modi, whose clarion call for “400 paar” (National Democratic Alliance (NDA) getting more than 400 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha) would not be possible without taking new parties into the NDA fold, as well as winning back estranged partners like the BJD. Though both parties were in alliance since 1998 — a year after BJD’s formation following the demise of former CM Biju Patnaik — the two parted ways in 2009 just before the Lok Sabha and assembly polls over BJP’s alleged role in fomenting communal disturbance in Kandhamal district, that saw Hindu-Christian riots in the aftermath of Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati’s death.

The BJP, in 2019, won eight of the 21 Lok Sabha seats while BJD won 12 seats, and the central leadership believed an alliance would sweep the entire state this year. BJP also believed that if a popular leader like Naveen Patnaik joined the NDA, it would send out a strong signal to other parties like the Shiromani Akali Dal, which is still undecided on rejoining the NDA. With these goals in mind, the talks were spearheaded by Union railways minister Ashwini Vaishnaw and Patnaik’s trusted aide and BJD second-in-command, VK Pandian.

Second, the alliance would help the BJP access power in Odisha after a gap of 15 years. Many senior BJP leaders believe that once it is sharing power, it can be the dominant partner once Naveen Patnaik retires.

Third, the alliance was also being pushed for by Naveen Patnaik, who is eyeing an unprecedented sixth term in Odisha this year, as well as the crown of the longest-serving CM of the country, overtaking Pawan Kumar Chamling who served as CM of Sikkim for 24 years. The BJD won 112 seats in the state assembly in 2019, giving Patnaik a fifth term as CM. With several opinion polls predicting a good showing of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls in Odisha, Patnaik is wary of the BJP’s success spilling over to the assembly polls, which are taking place simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls. If BJP betters its 2019 performance (when it won 23 seats in the state assembly) and wins over 50 seats, and BJD wins less than 90 (a little more than halfway), Patnaik may not have smooth sailing. But the alliance would have cornered 70 percent of the votes, ensuring a complete sweep in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, nullifying the anti-incumbency against Patnaik.

Fourth, the alliance is also being pushed for by VK Pandian, the 2000-batch IAS officer and Patnaik’s trusted aide for over a decade, who quit the bureaucracy last October to join the BJD. Pandian is arguably the most powerful man in the regional party after the CM, even perhaps a potential successor to Patnaik, but he has not been very successful in rallying support on the ground due to being a non-Odia. Pandian is Tamilian and is yet to find acceptance among the BJD cadre, while the BJP has not taken too kindly to his ascendance. His chances at becoming Patnaik’s successor then will depend largely on how he manages the BJP, his staunchest critic in Odisha, which is raking up his non-Odia background. By allying with the BJP, the opposition to Pandian will be subdued considerably.

How the alliance unravelled

Though discussions on the BJP-BJD alliance began with the aim that it would help the NDA achieve its goal of 400-plus Lok Sabha seats, the BJP’s central leadership soon started taking note of the discordant notes from its own state cadre, who loathed the idea of the party allying with their opponent of last 15 years. Having fought tooth and nail with their neighbourhood BJD leaders, the prospect of joining hands with them was a revolting idea. Many BJP leaders did not want the party to shoulder the BJD’s anti-incumbency by allying with them. BJD leaders too did not like the idea of an alliance, which would have ensured many of them being sacrificed. The report of Odisha Governor Raghubar Das, who through his district visits brought out the rising disenchantment with the government, also helped the BJP central leadership make up its mind. Seeing the dissenting voices, the BJP came to the view that the alliance may help the party in the short term, but harm it in the long term.

Though BJD was ready to concede 13-14 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP, the talks hit a wall with the BJP seeking a larger number of assembly seats (upwards of 50), with a demand for at least half a dozen ministerial posts, including a deputy CM. A wily Patnaik saw through the demand, realising that contesting anything less than 100 seats in the assembly would make the party MLAs vulnerable to the BJP’s overtures. Patnaik was also averse to letting the BJP become a partner in the ministry, as it would have given the saffron party a toehold in the day-to-day governance of the state, diminishing his importance. He too offered that the BJD would not demand any ministerial posts in the next Modi cabinet.

The two parties also could not agree on who gets to keep the prestigious Lok Sabha seats of Bhubaneswar (state capital) and Puri (religious capital). BJP’s Aparajita Sarangi won the Bhubaneswar seat in 2019 and is a strong contender to retain it this time. Patnaik was hesitant to leave Puri, as his government had invested ₹943 crore in the beautification of the perimeter of the Jagannath temple, the state’s most important shrine.

The biggest deal breaker, however, was the BJD’s insistence on some sort of insurance of a smooth run for Pandian at least for 2-3 years in the post-Naveen phase. Seen as the successor to Patnaik, the bureaucrat-turned-politician has not seen much success in getting popular acceptance, despite his publicised district visits last year. Many in Odisha see the Tamilian as an outsider being forced upon the state that was the first state of the country to be formed on the basis of language. While BJP was agreeable to not ‘destabilise’ Patnaik during his sixth term, they were against handing out the same courtesy to his presumptive successor. Having sensed the public resentment against Pandian, the party is now planning to make Odia asmita (Odia pride) a major poll plank.

Convinced by the argument of state BJP leaders that a Modi wave would favourably impact the Assembly polls, ground surveys as well as a report from the Governor that the ground beneath the BJD is slipping, the PM decided to place his bet on his party going alone. Even if the BJP wins 50 seats, 24 less than majority it would ensure greater momentum, bringing the party within striking distance of power.

Outwitted by the BJP, the BJD on its part did not indulge in a blame game and issued a bland statement. BJD organisational secretary Pranab Das said that the party will continue to take decisions keeping the people of Odisha in the forefront always and their welfare in the true spirit of cooperative federalism and statesmanship required for nation-building. Though its pre-poll alliance hopes have been dashed for the time being, the party may like to explore a post-poll alliance with the BJP, unwilling to be on the wrong side of a powerful PM.