BJP and the fine art of weaving poll alliances

As the general elections draw closer, so does the BJP’s web of poll alliances. Estranged allies, Congress chums of Rahul Gandhi, opposition leaders in general, regional satraps, caste leaders in remote locations – everyone is being signed up for the great battle ahead. When it comes to general elections, the party takes nothing for granted – not even its cheerleaders.

The Rajya Sabha list of 14 candidates that the BJP announced on February 11 included RPN Singh, a former deputy minister in the Manmohan Singh government. It was a case of yet another Rahul Gandhi buddy – christened the Doon School brigade – switching sides.

Singh, scion of a powerful OBC family from eastern UP’s Padrauna, who joined the BJP in 2022, entered an ever-growing list of Rahul Gandhi’s buddies who have abandoned the Congress ship to hitch on to the saffron bandwagon - Jyotiraditya Scindia, Jiten Prasada, Ashok Tanwar and Aditi Singh, to name just four.

Two days before this – and a day after announcing a Bharat Ratna for former Prime Minister Charan Singh – his grandson Jayant Chowdhary and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) dumped the Congress-led INDIA alliance and decided to ally with the BJP in politically sensitive western UP.

Under a week ago, Nitish Kumar and his JD (U) had decided to pull the plug on the Congress-steered alliance, hitching their fortunes to the BJP-led NDA while JD (S) patriarch H D Deve Gowda said last month that his son and former Chief Minister, H D Kumaraswamy, may contest the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, “if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah want him to do so.” The BJP and JD(S) – once estranged – are close anti-Congress allies in Karnataka for 2024.

It is not just the political heavies who are on the BJP shopping list – particularly in the Hindi belt. In UP, OBC leader, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief, Om Prakash Rajbhar, has already announced his intention to fight on the NDA platform.

Rajbhar told reporters: "The BJP has been increasing its strength by allying with smaller outfits, representing different castes. Other political parties position themselves to be taller than the others.” It is not too difficult to figure out who the `other' political parties are.

With Jayant Chowdhary, RPN Singh and Rajbhar in the bag, the BJP has enlarged its presence in politically crucial UP. In addition, they have Anupriya Patel-lead Apna Dal (Sonelal) and Sanjay Nishad’s NISHAD Party in the state.

In Bihar, the BJP can count on plenty of political wannabes - Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD), Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).

And thereby hangs a tale.

Sanjay Kumar, Professor and Co-Director of Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), whose core area of research is electoral politics, told this reporter:`` There are two interpretations being offered for BJP’s frenzied electoral tie-ups. One, that they are apprehensive of anti-incumbency, hence they are keen to get as many allies as possible on board. Two, that they are looking to enhance their 2019 Lok Sabha performance. Clearly, it is the second, which is more accurate. They are looking for an electoral sweep.”

Also, on the BJP’s to-woo radar are alienated former NDA allies. Home Minister Amit Shah recently asserted that talks were on with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. He was quoted by the PTI as saying that "Talks are going on but nothing has been finalised." Throwing the spanner in the works is the ongoing farmers' agitation that threatens to swamp Delhi.

The Akali Dal, one of the BJP’s oldest allies, had pulled out of the NDA in September 2020 over the now-scrapped three farm laws.

In Andhra Pradesh, where the Lok Sabha and assembly elections are to be held simultaneously, the BJP is `in talks’ with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), but is in in a bind: both the ruling YSR Congress and rival TDP, are keen to catch the BJP’s eye. A case of one choice too many.

As a matter of fact, political developments appear to be outpacing even breaking news. On November 12 came the report that the Congress leader in Maharashtra, former chief minister and former MP, Ashok Chavan, had resigned from the party's primary membership amid reports that he was in talks with the BJP.

Badri Narayan, Director, G B Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad, believes the BJP with stringing together nationwide electoral alliances is on the right path. “That is the way to go. They want to get as many seats as possible”.

With the Congress-led INDIA in disarray, the temple lights shining bright in Ayodhya for the hundreds of millions of believers and canny practitioners of realpolitik leading the BJP, that is increasingly appearing to be a likelihood.