Gangster-turned-politician Lakhwinder Singh alias Lakha Sidhana, 45, who is contesting on the SAD (Amritsar) ticket, can also influence the electoral outcome.

All nine assembly segments of the Bathinda parliamentary seat —Bathinda Urban, Bathinda Rural, Maur, Talwandi Sabo, Bhucho Mandi in Bathinda; Mansa, Sardulgarh, Budhlada in Mansa and Lambi in Muktsar district— are represented by the AAP.

After the bifurcation of Punjab in 1966, Bathinda, until 2004, was designated as a reserved constituency. The Akalis won the seat nine times. The Congress and the Communist Party of India (CPI) retained the seat twice each.

A radical Sikh leader won from here in 1989.

After delimitation, Bathinda became a general seat and the Badal family fielded Harsimrat, the current MP, from here in 2009. Since then, the Badals nurtured it as their stronghold and she won all three elections in 2009, 2014 and 2019.

In the last two elections, Badal’s victory margin remained around 20,000 votes, and the multi-cornered contest this time will test the election management of her party.

In 2014, she defeated Congress’ Manpreet Badal by 19,000 votes, while in the 2019 polls, her victory margin against Congress’ Amarinder Singh Raja Warring was 21,000 votes.

Except for MP Badal, who is the only member of the Badal family contesting the poll this time, the other four key candidates in the fray are fighting a Lok Sabha election for the first time. Four-time MLA Jeet Mohinder is the most experienced among the contenders; the BJP is contesting from Bathinda, a predominantly rural parliamentary seat, for the first time.

SAD hopes ‘panthic’ pitch pays dividends

The SAD, which has seemingly been marginalised in the state, is making efforts to retain the seat and is hoping to get support for the party’s call to re-strengthen Punjab’s only regional party, which represents the Sikh ‘panth’ (broadly, community).

Two of the SAD leaders, ex-MLAs from Bathinda Urban, Sarup Chand Singla, and Jeetmohinder from Talwandi Sabo, left the party in protest against the Akali leadership and are likely to sway votes in their two key segments.

Similarly, Akali stalwart, Sikander Singh Maluka, whose daughter-in-law Parampal, is contesting on the BJP ticket, is staying away from electioneering.

Badal, a former union minister, is widely talking about the establishment of the All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS), inaugurated in December 2019; the Central University of Punjab (CUP), which started in 2009 and an oil refinery under the PPP (public-private participation) that was set up in 2007, as her contributions to the development of Bathinda.

She is targeting AAP on the issue of widespread use of drugs among youth and, what she says, is the deteriorated fiscal health of the state under AAP.

The incumbent MP is trying to strike an emotional chord by crediting late Akali patriarch Parkash Singh Badal for implementing a slew of welfare schemes and introducing development projects.

Ashutosh Kumar, an analyst from the department of political science of Chandigarh-based Panjab University, said that despite her impressive contribution to the development of Bathinda, the incumbent faces a stiff electoral fight.

“Politics of the Akalis on panthic issues always remained so strong that they had a say even during the colonial era. But election trends since 2017 show that the SAD, which has been marginalised as the panthic party, is battling an image crisis. The current leadership is unable to make its presence felt and the in-house crisis may impact the parliamentary results of Bathinda and other seats,” he said.

Kumar said Badal, of course, has the advantage of a widely-held perception that she is not facing any strong opponent.

“Electoral equation could have been entirely different if the state Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring was fielded for the second consecutive time. There was a strong speculation that Warring would be fielded but the Congress leadership chose to field him from Ludhiana,” Kumar added.

Khudian banks on AAP’s welfare schemes

Badal’s key opponent Khudian, who won from Lambi, the home assembly constituency of the Badals, defeating the five-time chief minister late Parkash Singh Badal, in the 2022 assembly polls, is banking on the AAP government's welfare initiatives.

Khudian in his campaign has focused on his late father Jagdev Singh Khudian’s image of being an honest leader and his own clean image as the state’s agriculture minister.

He is relying heavily upon the Bhagwant Mann-led Punjab government’s welfare initiatives, particularly 600 units of free electricity, ‘mohalla’ (community) clinics and education in government schools, to woo voters.

Parampal relies on Modi's magic and family’s legacy

The BJP’s Parampa Kaur Sidhu, who is facing the wrath of farmer unions, blames the AAP and the SAD for trying to disrupt her electioneering by playing up the farmers’ issue.

She has mentioned the political legacy of father-in-law Maluka and husband Gurpreet Maluka. During her campaign, she has frequently referred to the ‘Modi wala card’ or the free medical treatment under the Ayushman Bharat scheme and financial assistance to farmers as key initiatives by the Centre.

Jeet Mohinder faces opposition within the party

The candidature of Congress’ Jeet Mohinder Singh Sidhu has seemingly caused heartburn among Congressmen because he is seen as a party hopper -- having joined the party only last October – who was fielded by overlooking ticket claims by the old guards.

Relying upon the INDIA bloc prospects at the national level, he is aggressively touring the villages to strengthen his support base.

Lakha Sidhana, a popular face among a section of the rural belt, is trying to consolidate the support of the villagers against the AAP government. Being a candidate of a Sikh radical political party, Sidhana is likely to woo the anti-Akali vote share.