close_game
close_game

Analysing BJP’s focus seats in Kerala for 2024 general elections

Mar 21, 2024 12:17 AM IST

The saffron party is setting its sights on Palakkad, Kasargod, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta, and Thiruvananthapuram

The summer heat has turned extreme in Palakkad, which recorded 41.3 degrees Celsius on Tuesday. The same day, thousands of voters in the Kerala Lok Sabha constituency that shares a border with Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu, came out on the streets to witness Prime Minister Narendra Modi's massive roadshow.

**EDS: IMAGE VIA @narendramodi** Palakkad: Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves at supporters during a roadshow ahead of Lok Sabha elections, in Palakkad, Kerala, Tuesday, March 19, 2024. (PTI Photo)(PTI03_19_2024_000128B)(PTI) PREMIUM
**EDS: IMAGE VIA @narendramodi** Palakkad: Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves at supporters during a roadshow ahead of Lok Sabha elections, in Palakkad, Kerala, Tuesday, March 19, 2024. (PTI Photo)(PTI03_19_2024_000128B)(PTI)

Modi travelled in an open jeep for the one-kilometre roadshow that began at 11 a.m. He was accompanied by BJP state president K Surendran, the party's Palakkad candidate C Krishnakumar, and Nivedita Subrahmanyan, the candidate of the adjacent Ponanni constituency.

Meanwhile, BJP's Malappuram candidate M Abdul Salam, the lone Muslim face in the party's candidate list in the country so far, was reportedly denied permission to board the jeep despite having waited for hours as the SPG reportedly wished to limit the number of people in the jeep to four. Rival CPI (M) and Congress parties claimed this was a classic example of how the party treats Muslims. Despite the controversy, Modi's roadshow was greeted with enthusiasm and excitement by party workers.

According to BJP leaders, Palakkad is one of the high-priority constituencies for the party in Kerala. Thrissur, where Malayalam superstar Suresh Gopi is engaged in a high-profile electoral war for the party, is another. Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, and Kasargod are the other constituencies the party is keen to compete with the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI-led Left Democratic Front.

Also read: BJP’s Kerala gambit: Established names, some surprises, but one focus seat

Modi has already set the bar for the party workers in the state: he wants to open the account with double digits. The Palakkad road show was Modi's second visit to Kerala within one week. On March 15, he addressed a similar crowd at Pathanamthitta and visited Thrissur twice in January. Modi is likely to visit the state in mid-April to seek votes in Kasargod and Thiruvananthapuram.

Why Palakkad?

Palakkad is the lone municipality in Kerala where the BJP rules — that too, with a clear majority. In the 2020 municipal body election, it won 28 out of 52 seats in a keenly contested triangular fight, improving its position from 24 in 2015.

In the last assembly election, India's metro man E. Sreedharan ensured a neck-and-neck fight against Congress candidate Shafi Parambil, though the latter emerged victorious in the last round of counting.

Palakkad, the birthplace of veteran BJP leader O Rajagopal, who opened the account for the BJP in the state assembly in 2016, winning the Nemom constituency in Thiruvananthapuram after several electoral debacles. He has a strong support base among the residents, especially the Tamil Brahmins who occupy the heritage town of Kalpathy and the migrant population from other states.

The BJP’s influence is minimal in areas outside the municipal limits of Palakkad.

"BJP is a force to be reckoned with in the Palakkad municipal area. But outside, its influence is abysmal. The other six assembly constituencies that form the Palakkad Lok Sabha constituency are the strongholds of Congress and CPI (M). So it would not be easy for the BJP to win in Palakkad as perceived by outsiders," said Karimbuzha Raman, state president of the Tamil Brahmin Sabha and a resident of Kalpathy.

Sitting MP V K Sreekantan from the Congress is trying his luck for the second time, banking on his impressive performance in the last five years.

CPI(M) politburo member A Vijayaraghavan, who is also the husband of the state's higher education minister R Bindu, is contesting on behalf of LDF. The triangular contest is emerging strong and vibrant despite the escalating atmospheric temperature and heat.

Kasargod

In the northern constituency, the BJP has fielded ML Ashwini, a block panchayat member of Manjeshwar, instead of the BJP national office bearer PK Krishnadas or state president K Surendran.

Brought up in Bengaluru, Ashwini has charisma and the ability to converse easily in English, Malayalam, Kannada, Hindi, Tulu, and Konkani. Kasargod is a land of language minorities and Ashwini is able to reach out to them easily.

As per the 2011 census, the Kasaragod constituency is primarily inhabited by Hindus, who comprise 55.84% of the population followed by Muslims (37.24%). Christians comprise hardly 6%. Because of the social and religious equations managed by the UDF, Congress alliance partner Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is a dominant player in the constituency where normally, the religious and language minorities decide the electoral fortunes.

Among the seven assembly constituencies that form Kasargod, northernmost Manjeswar has long been a stronghold of the BJP, and it always emerges as the runner-up in the elections. The party blames cross-voting by CPI(M) cadres to IUML candidates for its failure to emerge victorious.

Sitting MP Rajmohan Unnithan, from the Congress, is seeking the mandate again. The LDF has fielded CPI(M) district secretary M V Balakrishnan as its candidate. "Kasargod's distinct demography and language versatility do not provide a rosy picture for BJP.

It has considerable clout in the Kannada-speaking Manjeswar region, but the votes of Malayalam-speaking Thrikaripur, Kanjanhagad and Hosdurg would offset it. The political preferences of language minorities except Kannadigas are diverse, and no one can claim a monopoly,” said M A Rahman, an academic based in Kasargod.

Thrissur

Suresh Gopi is engaged in a high-decibel campaign in Thrissur despite Congress’s Muraleedharan emerging as a tough contender. Gopi unsuccessfully contested from Thrissur in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and also tested his mettle in the last assembly election. In 2019, he won 293,822 votes, giving a tough fight to Congress's sitting MP T N Prathapan. BJP leaders say he polled more votes than the party's 2014 candidate, K P Sreesan. However, in the assembly election, Gopi won 31.3% of the votes and facilitated the CPI candidate's victory over top Congress leader Padmaja Venugopal, the daughter of the late chief minister K Karunakaran — and Muraleedharan’s sister.

Padamaja joined the BJP on March 7.

Christian voters, who constitute more than 30% of the constituency, will play a deciding role in the constituency, which also explains Modi’s outreach to the community, and its religious leaders over the past few years.

Pathanamthitta

Pathanamthitta houses the famous Sabarimala temple, and it is where Modi started his campaign meeting for Anil Antony — invoking Lord Ayyappa. Anil Antony, the son of long-time Congress leader AK Antony, joined the BJP last April, and his candidature surprised many, including P.C. George, a Congress veteran who joined the saffron party after burning bridges with both the UDF and the Left parties.

Despite it being a traditional Christian constituency, the BJP was able to consolidate the Hindu votes using the sentiments of those who objected to the women's entry into the celebrated god's shrine in 2019.

CPI(M) leader and former state finance minister Dr T M Thomas Issac and sitting Congress MP Anto Antony will make the fight an interesting one to watch in this constituency.

Thiruvananthapuram

In Thiruvananthapuram, which houses Nemom, from where Rajagopal won and the BJP emerged the principal opposition in the municipal corporation, the party's union minister of state, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, is now engaged in a high-decibel contest with Shashi Tharoor, who has won this seat consistently since 2009.

Congress has nominated him for the fourth battle and senior CPI leader Pannyan Raveendran will fight on behalf of LDF.

Chandrasekhar, like Tharoor, possesses a comprehensive understanding of world affairs and governance; he has held the position of minister of state for IT and skill development since July 2021. Before Tharoor's emergence, LDF and UDF won from Thiruvananthapuram.

Tharoor has deep inroads in the constituency beyond party politics, and the powerful Latin Catholic Community, which represents significant fish workers in the constituency, has already indicated its support for him.

Chandrasekhar's primary obstacle is that he is new to Thiruvananthapuram and is now trying to acquaint himself with his people. In contrast, his two adversaries have already established themselves as prominent figures in the region.

The Sangh Parivar's hopes of Thiruvananthapuram began in 1984 when P Kerala Varma Raja of the Travancore royal family contested under the banner of Hindu Munani and won over 150,000 votes.

Chandrasekhar, whose slogan in Thiruvananthapuram is "Ini Karyam Nadakkum" (Now everything will work), expresses optimism over the level of voter participation in Modi's "developed India project" in the constituency.

All Access.
One Subscription.

Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines
to 100 year archives.

E-Paper
Full Archives
Full Access to
HT App & Website
Games
SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
SHARE
Story Saved
Live Score
Saved Articles
Following
My Reads
Sign out
New Delhi 0C
Tuesday, May 06, 2025
Follow Us On