As we gear up for the Lok Sabha and state assembly elections this year, it is ironic that in Maharashtra, we are witnessing a fractured coalition of bewildering complexity.

The vote-for-party complication

For the last few decades, the state has typically seen three major types of political fronts. On the one side were right-wing parties like the BJP and the Shiv Sena, either contesting independently or under a saffron alliance in the state with the BJP leveraging its national image and the Shiv Sena holding huge clout in the state. On the other side were the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) which stood for a more centrist, secular ideology and contested in an alliance or independently. Similar to the arrangement between Sena-BJP, the Congress-NCP leveraged its national and state image respectively based on the situation and requirements of the alliance. Parties which hold a smaller clout in the state such as the Samajwadi Party, CPI, CPM and RPI often supported larger parties based on their ideological inclination and situational compulsions.

The political developments that the state has witnessed over the last five years have toppled all these equations.

This began with the breakup of the Sena-BJP alliance and the formation of Maha Vikas Aghadi in 2019, a coalition of Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP. Just as the government was halfway through in its tenure, we saw the splintering of the Shiv Sena, with one faction led by Eknath Shinde aligning itself with the BJP to form a government. A year later, a split in the NCP with Ajit Pawar joining hands with BJP and Shinde-led Shiv Sena led to the creation of two factions in that party. While the Election Commission gave the official party name to the new formations, the two original leaders of these parties — Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar — still command huge clout and influence. One can thus see traditional party lines blurred as politicians switch sides, forge new alliances, and rebrand themselves.

This churning sea of political realignments leaves voters and political workers bewildered, grappling with shifting loyalties and ever-changing electoral dynamics. It is a recurring joke on WhatsApp that karyakartas have to confirm with their leaders each morning which side they are on and who they support. As it is, over the last few decades, with the changing economy of elections and the proliferation of social media, the dedicated karyakarta is almost becoming extinct and what exists now is a bunch of transactional supporters who support a leader or a party for varied personal, political or economic reasons and ambitions.

But the current scenario in the state is unprecedented for most supporters who find it beyond their comprehension. I recently spoke to a BJP karyakarta from Satara. In his late 40s now, he has been loyal to the BJP and the Sangh Parivar ideology for many years. He said that loyalists like him are also having a tough time as all their former foes are now inducted in the party. “Usually ahead of polls, we try to campaign with the work done by BJP in our constituencies and often try to highlight the shortcomings of our opponents. This time, it is such a confusing state as we are forced to work with those who we fought tooth and nail. We have no face to show.”

Such examples are aplenty. Take the case of Ajit Pawar, who aggressively campaigned for his son Parth, from the Maval constituency in 2019 Lok Sabha polls against Shiv Sena candidate Shrirang Barne. Parth however lost the elections to Barne with a difference of over 2 lakh votes. The elections were a big jolt to Pawar junior’s political career even before it began. Cut to 2024. Ajit Pawar is now one of the star campaigners for Barne as he is announced as the Mahayuti’s official candidate in Maval.

If the leaders and karyakartas are themselves confused about their loyalty, what kind of assurance can they offer to the 9 crore voters in the state?

As the state reels under the impact of massive unemployment, ever growing agrarian distress and several prominent day-to-day crises that need urgent attention, parties are busy fighting court cases to prove that they are the original party, and the media channels are busy covering Enforcement Directorate and Central Bureau of Investigation raids on politicians.

The key feature of Indian elections is the power that the once in five years event rests in the hands of its ordinary citizens to bring about a change, ask questions and push the political dispensation to make amends. But the current chaos in a state like Maharashtra, which sends one of the highest numbers of elected members to the parliament (48), has also pushed several voters to ask politicians and parties the same question that the BJP used as a poll tagline in 2014, ‘Kuthe neun thevlay Maharashtra majha? (where have you taken my Maharashtra?).

Dr. Sanjay Patil is a Mumbai based researcher who works on Maharashtra Politics and Urban Informality. His doctoral work looks at the journey of Shiv Sena between 1985 and 2022. The views expressed are personal