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Welcome back to the World Weekly where we discuss some of the biggest international news stories from the week.
This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC appears to show the Pyongyang's Monument to the Three Charters for National Reunification, which was also commonly called the Arch of Reunification, destroyed in Pyongyang, North Korea, on January 23. (AP)
Growing tensions in the Korean peninsula
North Korea on Wednesday test-fired a new generation of strategic cruise missiles as it ramps up its military capabilities amid rising tensions with its neighbours and the US. South Korea's military said that Pyongyang fired several cruise missiles towards the Yellow Sea at 7am, according to Seoul-based Yonhap News. The North appeared to confirm this news on Thursday. It fired the under-development Pulhwasal-3-31, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KNCA). "The test-fire had no impact on the security of neighbouring countries and has nothing to do with the regional situation," the report said. There were few details immediately available about the nature of the test or the missiles, but the fact that the KNCA described them as "strategic" cruise missile implies an intent to arm them with nuclear weapons. Cruise missiles are harder to detect or intercept because they fly at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles.
The test comes five days after Pyongyang tested the underwater nuclear weapon system "Haeil-5-23", under development in the East Sea of Korea, in response to major joint drills by the US, Japan and South Korea, and nearly 10 days after it flight-tested, in the sea between Japan and South Korea, a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead, which it did not identify, but could be the Hwasong-18 (unveiled in February at a military parade). The testing of cruise missiles is not banned under the various UN sanctions against Pyongyang, which mainly target its nuclear programme. Still, South Korean defence minister Shin Won-sik condemned the launches as a serious threat to the country. Tensions have been rising in the Korean peninsula in the recent months with the North ramping up the testing of its military capabilities in what is says is a response to "the US and other hostile forces' military confrontation moves". In turn, the US and its allies, South Korea and Japan, have increased cooperation and joint military exercises, while blaming North Korea for rising tensions.
Why it matters The developments, two experts at 38 North — a Stimson Center programme devoted to analysis about North Korea — said, suggest that North Korea is preparing for war. "We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s 'provocations'," wrote former CIA analyst Robert L Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried S Hecker on January 11. Since then, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has said that Pyongyang will no longer pursue reconciliation with Seoul, which he has branded the "principal enemy," and has torn down a monument symbolising the effort.
Other experts have offered a note of caution, pointing to North Korea's history of ramping up pressure on South Korea when it doesn't get want it wants from the US. This is particularly relevant given that it is an election year in the US (November). "Looking at the history of North Korea, it has often used provocation to attract the attention of other countries when it wants to negotiate," Seong-Hyon Lee, senior fellow at the George H W Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, told the BBC. Kim, who had a well-documented bromance with former US president Donald Trump, could also be counting on the latter's return to power for concessions. Still, the escalations in the Korean peninsula threaten the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific and further raise the spectre of war in the Asia region at a time when conflicts in Europe and West Asia have already roiled the world.
Related read: South Korea: First lady's Dior bag shakes country's leadership
Farmers with tractors arrive for a protest at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany, on January 15. (AP)
European far-right looks to farmers for victory
On Friday, farmers approached Paris looking to disrupt traffic with the warning that their protests could go on till their demands are met. The protests that began two weeks ago in the southwest of France have heaped pressure on the French government over working conditions of farmers and new regulations. The protesters have blocked highways with bales of hay, dumped agricultural waste outside government offices, overturned crates of imported food, and turned traffic signs upside down.
But France is not the first European country that has seen this kind of agriculture-related anger. Germany, Poland and Romania too have experienced the dissatisfaction of farmers spillover into the streets over the past few months. In Germany, for instance, farmers carried out a week-long protest which culminated last week in Berlin with some 10,000 farmers, 5,000 tractors and trucks, along with others from across the country. Similar protests have also taken place in Poland, Romania and (in limited form) Italy in the recent weeks. At least 16 countries have been affected by protests in the last 18 months, according to think tank Farm Europe.
What do they want? Farmers are increasingly bitter over the what they say is the disproportionate burden of the European Union’s efforts to slash greenhouse gas emissions amid rising foreign competition, red tape, and costs. Part of the pressures are a result of the war in Ukraine. Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea route has forced Ukraine, among the world’s top exporter of wheat, to send its grain exports overland, resulting in tonnes of excess grain flooding markets in Central Europe and creating discontent among farmers. On Thursday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen kicked off the Strategic Dialogue on Agriculture in an effort to mediate the differences between agriculture groups and EU decision-makers. “Our agri-food industry has many strengths. We have to build on them. I’m looking forward to hearing the recommendations of the Strategic Dialogue on Agriculture. So we can find, together, common solutions for the future of agriculture in Europe,” von der Leyen said in a post on X.
Why does it matter: The discontent offers a fresh opportunity to the far-right to exploit months ahead of elections for the European Parliament. A protest on Wednesday outside the European Parliament in Brussels was attended by far-right leader Marion Maréchal, the niece of lead candidate of the French far-right Reconquête party Marine Le Pen. Maréchal called for a “change of the European Parliament’s political line on both foreign policy and this punitive ecology.”
“Farmers’ anger has become a major issue for the far right across Europe,” Kevin Cunningham, a political scientist at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told Politico. “It may not be the number one issue, it is surprisingly effective at crystalising resentment over economic problems.”
“This is the new kind of agrarian populism popping up in these countries,” Léonie de Jonge, a political scientist at the University of Groningen, told The Guardian.
A report from the ECFR on Wednesday warned that anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden) in the elections in June. This has dire consequences for EU policy, especially on climate.
“This ‘sharp right turn’ is likely to have significant consequences for European-level policies, which will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change,” the report said. The warning comes just weeks after 2023 was confirmed to be the hottest year on record with a warning that 2024 may top even that.
That's all for this week, folx. If you have any suggestions, feedback, or questions, please write to me at sanya.mathur@hindustantimes.com
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